Please . . .

The same people who are "upset" about Obama's Special Olympic remarks wouldn't have blinked twice if it was said by someone with an R after their name. Of course, the same people who would normally be up in arms are pretty quiet.

In other words, political situation normal.

Change

As much as anything else, this , may be the most welcome change from the Bush years. A President should never be afraid to meet the people, even those who disagree with him. And if his staff disagrees, then its time to get new staff. Hopefully this will not change as the years go on.

A Very Serious Speech

This is a man who recognizes the challenges in front of him and the country, and one who recognizes that it will require sacrifice and a joint purpose for all its citizens to get back on the right path.

But it was also clear that he believes that getting back on that path is something that together we can and must do.

Change

It is hard not to get excited by any inauguration where the reigns of power are getting handed over to the opposition party peacefully. The greatness of America is illustrated by these events, whether it be 1980, 1992, 2000 or 2008.

At least for a day all of Washington can get together and celebrate America. And we can hope that, given the challenges that face our country right now, that this feeling could last longer than a few days. (Whether we actually believe that is something else entirely.)

An In Depth Analysis of the Election

I was going to do a deep analysis, but I found the following which pretty much sums it up better than I could.

So basically my analysis is that, whatever happened, we are, as a nation, doomed. We are also bitterly divided, because whoever wins, roughly half of us will despise the other half, and vice versa.

You know what I miss? I miss 1960. Not the part about my face turning overnight into the world's most productive zit farm. What I miss is the way the grown-ups acted about the Kennedy-Nixon race. Like the McCain-Obama race, that was a big historic deal that aroused strong feelings in the voters. This included my parents and their friends, who were fairly evenly divided, and very passionate. They'd have these major honking arguments at their cocktail parties. But unlike today, when people wear out their upper lips sneering at those who disagree with them, the 1960s grown-ups of my memory, whoever they voted for, continued to respect each other and remain good friends.

What was their secret? Gin. On any given Saturday night they consumed enough martinis to fuel an assault helicopter. But also they were capable of understanding a concept that we seem to have lost, which is that people who disagree with you politically are not necessarily evil or stupid. My parents and their friends took it for granted that most people were fundamentally decent and wanted the best for the country. So they argued by sincerely (if loudly) trying to persuade each other. They did not argue by calling each other names, which is pointless and childish, and which constitutes I would estimate 97 percent of what passes for political debate today.

What I'm saying is: we, as a nation, need to drink more martinis.

No, you know what I'm saying. I'm saying, now that this election is over, whatever the hell happened, can we please grow up and stop being so nasty to each other? Please?

OK, I didn't think so.

Please pass the pitcher.

That is something I think we can all believe in. Thanks Dave Barry.

PREDICTIONS FOR TOMORROW

Presidential Race Prediction

Electoral College
Obama – 321 McCain – 217

Popular Vote
Obama – 52% McCain – 47%


The Obama campaign’s organizational skills will drag him across the finish line in the key state of Virginia and Florida. I just can’t see McCain winning Pennsylvania, but if it is close, it will be a very long night. The OH GOP’s excellent organization should be enough to keep that state in McCain’s column. North Carolina may end up being the closest state, but in the end I think it will revert to its Rep roots. My “surprise” state is Montana. It has been sparsely polled, and the presence of Ron Paul on the ballot could drag McCain’s numbers low enough for Obama to sneak past. (Don’t forget that Clinton was able to win Montana once too.)

Let me say this though, if North Carolina and Ohio end up in Obama’s column, I think we’ll see a landslide election, with Obama getting over 400 votes (including IN, LA, ND, WV and MO).


SENATE PREDICTIONS

There is no doubt that the Democrats will have a good night on November 4th. The feelings that atmosphere is so toxic for Republicans combined with facts that have more seats (23-12) to defend will make for a long night for GOP Senate watchers. The pressing question is whether the Democrats will get to 60 seats, which (at least in theory) would keep Republicans from being able to filibuster. My prediction is that the Democrats will end up with 58 seats (at least before any Senators are asked to join the cabinet, or Joe Lieberman formally joins the GOP caucus).

EASY WINS FOR THE INCUMBENT

• ID Open (Craig, R)
• NE Open (Hagel, R)
• Alexander (R-TN)
• Barrasso (R-WY)
• Cochran (R-MS)
• Cornyn (R-TX)
• Enzi (R-WY)
• Graham (R-SC)
• Inhofe (R-OK)
• Roberts (R-KS)
• Sessions (R-AL)
• Baucus (D-MT)
• Biden (D-DE)
• Durbin (D-IL)
• Harkin (D-IA)
• Johnson (D-SD)
• Kerry (D-MA)
• Lautenberg (D-NJ)
• Levin (D-MI)
• Pryor (D-AR)
• Reed (D-RI)
• Rockefeller (D-WV)
EASY DEMOCRATIC PICK UPS
• CO Open (Allard, R)
• NM Open (Domenici, R)
• VA Open (Warner, R)
Easy Republican Pick Ups
• None

SENATE RACES TO WATCH

Alaska – Ted Stevens can’t survive a conviction, although it will be close. Dem Pick Up.

Georgia – Saxsby Chambliss will win, the big question is if he gets 50% + 1 in order to avoid a Dec. runoff. He will. GOP Hold.

Kentucky - Mitch McConnell will be a casualty if there is a serious wave. The wave nips at him, but he survives to lead the loyal opposition. GOP Hold.

Louisiana – What was once the Democrats most vulnerable seat will be a pretty easy hold. The most interesting question will be what portion of the Katrina refugees will return to vote. Dem Hold.

Maine – Susan Collins was a target, but she will hold on pretty handily. GOP Hold.

Minnesota – By far the most entertaining of the night’s races. Neither Al Franken or Norm Coleman can seem to get ahead, and the presence of a serious third party candidate (combined with Minnesota’s normal quirkiness) make it almost impossible to predict, but I will anyway – Obama pulls Franken across. Dem Pick Up.

Mississippi – Another wave indicator, but recently appointed Senator Roger Wicker will just hold off former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove. GOP Hold.

New Hampshire – Jeanne Shaheen will win this rematch of the 2002 race against John Sunnu. Dem Pick Up.

North Carolina – Liddy Dole hasn’t stayed in touch with her North Carolina roots (as though she had in 2002 either). Kay Hagen wins by 5%. Dem Pick Up.

Oregon – I think this will be the closest race and we won’t know for two or three days. Gordon Smith has been running as an Obama supporter, but my guess is that Oregon voters will chose the real one. Dem Pick Up.

One Week

One week to go, and there has been very little movement in the polls over the past 7 days. Obama seems to be ahead by 6-8 points in the national polls, and continues to run ahead by a few points in McCain must wins states like Pennsylvania (actually probably more than a few), Ohio, and Florida. Colorado may already be a lost cause, and although no one would give up on Virginia because of it historical voting, it looks like Virginia is going to be very hard to get too. (Obama seems to be making some runs in places like Montana and even Arizona, but McCain doesn’t appear to be making any similar inroads into Obama states – except, maybe, New Hampshire.)

The latest argument put forth by the McCain camp against Obama is this redistribustionist/Socialist/Marxist line. The problem is that 1) they can’t get the argument straight – the official surrogates won’t call him a Marxist or a Socialist, while the bloggers are jumping straight to Marxist or worse (Communist); 2) that redistribution of wealth is something that we have had for over a hundred years now – its called the progressive tax system, and has been supported by ever Republican president, including McCain fav Teddy Roosevelt; and 3) in an economy where tax payers are bailing out banks to the tune of a trillion dollars, and yet those banks have been paying there top executives 50 million dollars a year, a little distribution doesn’t exactly sound awful to the average voter. (Plus the time to make this argument, which is little different that the typical tax and spend argument that Republicans always make was in July and August, not with less than two weeks to go in a campaign, when many people have already made up their minds – or even voted!)

Finally, yesterday there was this brouhaha on the right about an audio/video tape from 2001, in which Obama was talking about the civil rights movement and the use of the Courts for social and economic justice. The right wingers jumped all over this, and Drudge ran headlines about how Obama thought it was a tragedy that the Supreme Court hadn’t re-distributed wealth. However, not only was that not what Obama said, he in fact said just the opposite. He said that one of the tragedies of the civil rights movement is that they focused too much on the Courts, and not enough on changing the political climate – a point that conservatives should actually agree with.

And interestingly, the conservative legal commentators [Bainbridge, Orin Kerr, David Bernstein] have not jumped on board; some have in fact been surprised by the depth of thought given by Obama to the topic. Even if they disagree with the policy aspects, few of the conservative legal thinkers could get worked up over what Obama said.

So, the Obama camp is on cruise control and the McCain camp is fighting amongst themselves. That alone should illustrate how the race stands with a week to go.

12 Days

Despite one outlier AP/GfK poll that shows the race tightening to a single point, the McCain situation gets bleaker by the moment. The latest national polls show him 8, 10, 12 or even 14 points down. The daily tracking polls are a little kinder (usually showing about a 6 point deficit), but they haven’t shown any movement McCain’s way in the past week.

The state by state situation is even bleaker. Despite some anecdotal evidence that the race is tightening in Pennsylvania or Iowa, the latest polls just don’t seem to support it. McCain supporters are left with the usual “polls are wrong” and “the silent majority will speak” arguments, that might be persuasive in a tighter race.

Further, the down-ballot races all seem to be moving Democratic. Even if you assume that Obama isn’t as popular as Democrats as a whole, this down-ballot tidal wave would certainly help Obama. (I don’t buy that assumption, but wouldn’t be surprised to see the “generic” Democrat numbers out perform Obama on Election Day.)

Not that all is lost for McCain, but it does mean that something new should be tried. Mike Murphy (McCain’s 2000 advisor) suggests a national address “Hail Mary” that would include a mini-Mea Culpa for the negativity that has been seen in this campaign. It might appear desperate, but at this point McCain has nothing to lose. He can continue to campaign as he has and lose, or he can try something different and hope for a miracle.

(That said, after listening to McCain’s grumpy appearance on the Imus show yesterday, he doesn’t appear to be in the mood for game changing.)

Case Closed

There may be external events that can change the course of this campaign, but whatever those are, they are now outside the control of John McCain. Obama was eloquent and appeared knowledgeable and thoughtful on many issues. Much like his campaign, John McCain couldn't decide whether to attack, or whether to stress his record.

This was, by far, the best performance by Obama (and/or the worst by John McCain).

The fact that they were debating who was more negative was a loss for McCain. The fact that McCain left the Ayers issue of the table, even after Obama was begging him to raise it, until the very end of the question was a loss. Just having to defend Gov. Sarah was a loss.

Still over two weeks left, but after tonight I don't think that there is anything that the McCain campaign can do to beat Obama, he needs outside help.

Uh-oh

As far as the conservative reaction goes, it has been noticeable. The Corner has gone nearly silent, as opposed to the almost orgasmic response following the Palin debate. (Maybe McCain should have winked -- okay, maybe not.) And even worse, on the Weekly Standard Blog, (Stephen Hayes -- Dick Cheney's hand picked biographer) gives the debate to Obama. Even Bill Kristol couldn't muster much enthusiasm for John McCain's performance.

And of course, on FOX, Greta Van Sustren had only 10 minutes on the debate, and then immediately began reporting on Gov. Sarah's comments about Bill Ayers. I also didn't hear the Frank Luntz focus group, but I may have just missed it.

Expect the right wingers to bang on Ayers, and one would assume beginning next week, on Jeremiah Wright. Apparently since they have decided that they can't win on the actual issues, the GOP and their faithful have decided to try and tear down Obama. Frankly, this is a political tactic (or a strategy, I'll call John McCain to figure out which is which) that, if it was going to be used, should have been done in the summer (ala John Kerry and the Swiftboaters.) Doing so a month out of the election just seems desperate, and voters don't like desperate candidates. And frankly the GOP may have to worry about the brand here, if the next month is all about trying to tear down Obama, the GOPers down the ticket may suffer.

And for the record, the best strategy (or tactic) the McCain campaign has used is Obama's inexperience. Unfortunately, the Gov. Sarah pick negates this, and even worse, makes McCain look like a hypocrite. I don't think that McCain would be ahead right now if he had picked Mitt Romney, but I guess he wouldn't be so far behind, and at least a Obama gaffe away from the Presidency.

2nd Debate - Staus Quo

It was very unwieldy, and I thought poorly organized. Was it the Tom Brokaw debate or a town hall setting? I don't really know, although I guess that the campaigns fought so much about format that it ended up as something that neither would like. (Of course, both campaigns probably figured that they would be ahead and didn't want to take any risks.) Either way, Obama emerges unscathed. Neither candidate came away with a big plus or minus soundbite, which I think was the big concern when these rules were negotiated.

The big item out of this debate might be the mortgage buy-out that McCain proposed. It was strangely presented, and he didn't say how he would be paying for this, and I think that most people just found it weird. Plus how much will this cost? It sounds like it might be 300+ Billion, which can't be made up through the earmarks that John McCain rails against. (On the other hand, if this program will buy my house in CT for 2005 prices, I'll be happy to vote for John McCain, or he could just send me a check for $90,000.)

I know the conservatives will be disappointed that the entire debate wasn't about Bill Ayers, but my guess is that the Obama camp had a pretty good, maybe even devastating rejoinder if it was necessary. But despite the growing GOP desires, economy trumps some 1960's radical that most of us never heard of. I think that the McCain campaign realizes this, but also realizes that this is the last line of motivation for the base, and they can't give up on it. (Expect Gov. Sarah to talk about it every day for the next 27 days.)

In the end, the result was that Obama looked Presidential and McCain looked like, well, he looked like John McCain. Advantage Obama, and I'd be surprised if the polls don't slide even further his way by this weekend.

2012

Not that I think that the election is even close to being over, but I wonder how different the reactions to Gov. Palin's non-answer answers would be in a primary debate with the likes of Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, and Mike Huckabee. I think that all of them would jump all over the fact that she can't provide a real answer.

My guess is that if she is sent back to Alaska in November, she'll be spending the next three years studying. A performance like last night in 2011 simply won't stand.

Now they can exhale

The McCain campaign and many conservatives found out that it is actually possible to hold your breath for 90 minutes tonight. And when they actually drew breath again they were elated. Sarah Palin did not fall on her face or burst out in tears . . . therefore she won!

However, conservatives have been so down over the past few weeks, and Palin's performance has been so bad during that time, her performance tonight will be something to get them reved up again.

In the end, as is usually the case, the winner was determined by your view point coming into the debate. For some, Sarah Palin's down-home, regular talk is just what is needed for the country. For others, her non-answers and cutsey folkisms were like 90 minutes of fingernails on the chalkboard.

From my view point, Biden was a clear winner on points (and fwiw, the dials on CNN certainly seemed to reflect that as well). Does that matter? I don't know. If the public feels that substance was more important than style, Biden will be seen as the clear winner. If style points are factored in, I think it is a tie.

Just for the record

Even Dick Morris, after professing that he will vote for McCain, said Obama won the deabte.

This Debate

Probably a draw -- which for an foreign policy debate is a win for Obama.

There weren't any major mistakes, but Obama looked like he should be on the stage -- and that may have been the most important issue tonight.

There were times that it sounded too much like a Senate committee debate, which I think works against McCain, as the guy who has been there longer.