Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Free Advice for Marco (and worth every penny!)

Donald Trump is now 3-1 in the primary.  Ted Cruz is 1-3, Marco Rubio and John Kasich are 0-4.  AIn any normal year, we would now be down to a Trump/Cruz race. 

But 2016 is anything but normal. 

In fact, the GOP establishment is now putting all of its hope in the basket of someone who has not been able to crack 25% in any of the races so far.  (The rush of the former Bush supporters to Rubio has been the only predictable thing to happen in this election so far.)  What intrigues me most about the embrace of the GOP establishment of Marco Rubio, is whether he will now adapt to the new circumstances he is presented with and turn his guns on The Donald.  Will he start making the argument to voter, that not just “I am the most electable” (which is a bit hard to make, since, you know, he hasn’t actually won anything yet) but rather “He is not electable” (which at this point may be the only way to bring down The Donald).

For the most part Rubio has steered clear of The Donald.  There are some mild criticisms here and there, but nothing like what he has thrown at Cruz or Christie (when he was in the race).  I have 5 theories on why Rubio is keeping his powder dry against The Donald, and explanations as to why none of these will ultimately lead to a Rubio nomination.

1)            Trump voters are not Rubio voters

Rubio assumes that Trump voters aren’t going to vote for him anyway.  This is becoming something of a self-fulfilling prophesy as he becomes the establishment candidate.  But Trump is quickly reaching 50% (he got 45% in Nevada) and it is clear that voters who had been supporting other candidates are moving toward The Donald, at least in substantial enough numbers to keep his ceiling moving upward.  Trump is around 40% now, if Carson drops and Cruz drops, then The Donald will easily be over 50%.  Plus voters like to vote for WINNERS.   Hoping to pick up the other candidates voters when they drop out hasn’t happened yet, and there is no reason to think it will in the future.  

2)            He wants to be the sunny candidate

Rubio tries to project a positive, sunny disposition.  It may be because that is his personality; it may be because he believes that is what a Presidential candidate should be like; it could be because he doesn’t come across as serious when he is mean.   I don’t know the reason.  All I know is that the GOP electorate is angry.  And they just aren’t angry at Obama (though they are) or hate Clinton (though they do), they are also angry at all of Washington. They want someone who is angry too!  The Donald may not always make sense, but he is upset and angry at the status quo.  Morning in America doesn’t work if voters believe night will never end.

3)            He is relying on the GOP Establishment to take down The Donald

If he was hoping to have clean hands, it should be clear that he can’t now rely on The Establishment to take down The Donald.  Either they can’t or won’t, and maybe both.  Besides which, now that Marco is the Establishment candidate, he will get tarred anyway. Even more, it has to be a candidate that challenges him.  Super PACs run by The Establishment  are just background noise at this point.  If anything The Establishment is trying to make peace with a possible The Donald nomination, his reliance on them coming to the rescue is misplaced. 

4)            He doesn’t want to hurt his chances in 2020

Marco is a young man, and he thinks that he has a bright future ahead of him, that he doesn’t want to tarnish by being seen as too angry or mean by the voters.  But success in politics can be fleeting.  Ask President Chris Christie.  Who knows where the country will be in 2020?  Besides, do you want to be known as the person who lost to The Donald?  Especially if he leads to an electoral debacle in the fall?  Won’t voters be asking in 2020, why should we turn to you now when you couldn’t even beat that loser?

5)            He is scared of The Donald

Rubio’s poor NH debate performance showed why he is probably the wrong messenger to attack The Donald.   Although his debate performances (usually) win high praise from the pundits, he generally relies on the lines he uses in his stump speeches.  Attacking The Donald will open him up to attacks that take him outside this comfort zone.  He has not shown the ability to parry attacks, like Cruz, nor the nimbleness of a Christie to see the weak spots in an argument and pounce.   Rubio apparently doesn’t want to engage The Donald, but the failure to do so means he continues to grow.

Running for President is hard.  You have to get lucky and be smart.  But most of all you have to adapt.  So far Rubio hasn’t shown that he can adapt.  He is still running a version of his 3-2-1 strategy that he started the campaign with (even if it is now a 3-5-2-2 strategy).  It should be clear that by himself, The Donald will not self-destruct. He is truly Teflon.  But the best way to ruin Teflon is to scratch it up, and that can only come from the candidates themselves.   

It should also be clear that there is no reason for Cruz to drop out and that at best you are looking at a 40-30-30 split of the GOP votes.  Maybe this is enough to get to the convention with The Donald having gotten enough delegates to win.  But more likely, it means a nice speaking spot at the convention when voters start flocking to the winner.

If Rubio is going to have a shot, he needs to be less passive.  Attack The Donald; show that there is more than the pretty face and a nice background story as a reason for The Establishment support; demonstrate that you aren’t just the GOP Obama.  If he does that, he will have a punchers chance.  Not a good one, but still a chance.  Absent his adapting to the current circumstances, he can start thinking about whether he want to run for Governor of Florida in 2018, or just audition for his inevitable FOX News show.

Tuesday, November 06, 2012

2012 Election Predictions

President

Obama: 303 EV - 51.2% of Popular Vote
Romney: 235 EV - 48.4% of Popular Vote

Obama Swing States:
Colorado
Iowa
Nevada
New Hampshire
Ohio
Pennsylvania (not really a swing state)
Virgina
Wisconsin

Romney Swing States:
Florida
North Carolina

No real big surprises.

Senate

Democrats: 54
Republican: 46
Democrats increase majority by 1

Toss Up Senate Races:
Arizona - Flake (R) - Hold (But will be close)
Connecticut - Murphy (D) - Hold
Florida - Nelson (D) - Hold
Indiana - Donnelly (D) - Pick up
Mass. - Warren (D) - Pick up
Missouri - McCaskill (D) - Hold
Mont. - Tester (D) - Hold
Nevada - Heller (R) - Hold
N. Dakota - Berg (R) - Pick Up
Ohio - Brown (D) - Hold
Penn. - Casey (D) - Hold (But may be a nail biter)
Virgina - Kaine (D) - Hold
Wisconsin - Baldwin (D) - Hold

House

Democrats pick up 5 seats, but I have no idea where.

Monday, May 02, 2011

The Celebrations Tonight

They seem to be dominated by college kids, which is obvious for two reasons. 1-Who else can go out on a Sunday night. 2- What else have they had to celebrate for the past 10 years?

Sunday, May 01, 2011

Bin Laden Dead

Hard to believe it took almost 10 years, but justice has finally arrived to this monster.

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Political Discourse Today

President Obama at University of Michigan Commencement 2010:
But we can’t expect to solve our problems if all we do is tear each other down. You can disagree with a certain policy without demonizing the person who espouses it. You can question somebody’s views and their judgment without questioning their motives or their patriotism… Now, we’ve seen this kind of politics in the past. It’s been practiced by both fringes of the ideological spectrum, by the left and the right, since our nation’s birth. But it’s starting to creep into the center of our discourse. And the problem with it is not the hurt feelings or the bruised egos of the public officials who are criticized. Remember, they signed up for it. … The problem is that this kind of vilification and over-the-top rhetoric closes the door to the possibility of compromise. It undermines democratic deliberation. It prevents learning -- since, after all, why should we listen to a ‘fascist,’ or a ‘socialist,’ or a ‘right-wing nut,’ or a left-wing nut’?

Wednesday, January 05, 2011

Congratulations Speaker Boehner

I find the peaceful transition of power to be among the greatest feats of American democracy, even when my party is the one surrendering power.  Today is a day of celebration that such a feat can be accomplished over and over and over.

I am ever hopeful that the greatest country in the history of the world will continue to move forward as a beacon of hope and inspiration.

I Guess This is One Way to Have Palin Look Like More Moderate

From ABC News:

ABC News has learned that Bachmann, R-Minn., also is seriously weighing whether to seek the Republican nomination for president in 2012.
A source close to the three-term congresswoman said Bachmann will travel to Iowa this month for multiple meetings to seek advice from political forces there and party elders close to the caucus process before coming to a final decision regarding a potential presidential run. Bachmann, a native of Waterloo, Iowa, also is set to deliver a keynote speech at an Iowans for Tax Relief PAC fundraiser Jan. 21 in Des Moines, Iowa.
I had thought she would be running for the Senate seat in 12, but apparently she has her sights set higher.

Friday, November 26, 2010

True Thanks

If you missed this on Thanksgiving Day, you owe it to yourself to watch it.  Its not every NFL pregame show that can bring a tear to your eye. (It is worth putting up with the annoying commercial at the beginning.)

Friday, November 12, 2010

Serenity Now, Serenity Now

Rep. John Shimkus (R-IL) -- who claimed this week he is "uniquely qualified among a group of talented contenders to lead the Energy and Commerce Committee" -- said that climate change should not concern us since God has already promised not to destroy the Earth," the Toronto Star reports.

Said Shimkus: "The Earth will end only when God declares it's time to be over. Man will not destroy this Earth. This Earth will not be destroyed by a Flood. I do believe that God's word is infallible, unchanging, perfect."

(H/T - Political Wire)

Tuesday, November 02, 2010

Election Night Live Blogging

Going to bed, but about 60K votes separating Scott & Sink.  May cause me to run for Palm Beach County elections commissioner some day

OK, getting late.  The key number is 52.  If Dems have 52 Senators, its OK.  Washington will then be really funny to watch.  (and I have officially given up on Palm Beach County voting.)

12:35 - FL Gov's race comes down to Palm Beach County, OY

Please, Please, Please - I want Palin v. Obama in 12.  I'll even give her cash.

12:32 - Losses in PA, IL & Wisc cause the stomach acid in the WH tonight

12:31 - Fox says Reid wins.

12:12 - Looks like Reid might win more comfortably than most Dems tonight.

12:11 - Really, Arizona, Jan Brewer?

12:05 - hey CNN, Obama has done transformational.  Look at what he has done. (and does Mary Matlin have a migraine?)

11:57 - CNN says Dems hold Senate, defeat history.

11:51 - GOP winning for CT gov, but votes still outstanding in Stamford, Bridgeport and Hartford.

11:47 - Does Boehner crying really help?

11:45 - Penn. Sen and OH Gov appear to be going to the GOP.  False illusions from earlier.

11:32 - Alot of the missing votes in Fla appear to be from Palm Beach.  Sink has hope.

11:19 - May seem obvious, but key to the House in 2012 for Dems will be recruiting.  Find good candidates!  Lots of seats that are winnable.

11:10 - CNN just announced no votes in Nevada, but still won't make call.  (Why wait?)

11:04 - Hard to say who has less insightful statement - Spitzer v. Parker

10:53 - Apparently Scott has gotten the call in FL.  I shiver.  He becomes the most unpopular Governor in America before he is even inaugurated.

10:50 - I literally expect nothing to happen over the next 2 years.  Advantage Obama.

10:44 - Shrugging about House.  Had assumed we would lose, numbers don't matter, given the Parlimenatry nature of House (especially for GOP).

10:36 - Wisconsin will be a dark spot.

10:33 - BTW was in Hickenlooper's bar in Denver last week.  Good Beer.

10:30 - Colorado may be another bright spot for Dems. (Few and far between)

10:25 - words that should strike fear in all voter - "problems with the vote in Palm Beach County."
 (calling Theressa LaPorre)

10:14 - Looks like Amendments 5&6 in Florida will pass.  Good news for gerrymandering-foes!

10:08 - Expect gridlock. House will be uncontrollable with lots of tea-partiers.   (White House secretly giddy, if they can keep Senate.)

9:49 - Looks like Mass is back in the Dem camp.  Patrick wins and keep 10 of 10 seats.  Scott brown was a fluke.

9:43 - Also some weird results out of South Carolina. Gov's race is too close to call, Alvin Greene got 30+% and Joe "You Lie" Wilson is losing.  Weird when S.C. may be a Democratic bright spot.

9:40 - Getting pessimistic about Sink's chance in Florida.  But still no results from Hillsborough County and need more from Miami-Dade, Palm Beach and Broward.  Still some hope.

9:32 - Listening to Rubio victory speech.  I may be alone, but I have never impressed with Marco Rubio.  But I do expect to see him on a GOP ticket within the next 12 years. (BTW - line of note in the speech "no matter what title I may achieve.")

9:17 - Florida results are maddeningly slow this year.

9:10 - Nate Silver projects 90% of House takeover, but only 2% Senate takeover.  This defies history that when the House flips, so does the Senate.

9:06 - Races in Wisc, Penn., Illinois, and Colorado Senate races could really change the storyline tomorrow.

9:00 - Exit polls in Wisconsin suggests this may be closer than thought

8:49 - With W.V. being called for Manchin, looks like Dems will hold Senate.  House will be a very different story.  Virgina, which was purple in 08, looks to be red again.

Quick Predictions for Today

House
The GOP takes over, wins 55 seats from Dems, but nets 51 after losing their own seats in DE-At Large, HI-1, FL-25 and IL-10.

Senate

Democrats hold the Senate, 53-47.  Wins in Colorado and West Virginia.  Losses in Nevada and Wisconsin.  Surprise win for Democrats in Alaska, but won't be decided for another month.  California is closer than expected

Governors

A couple key races, Dems win Florida, Colorado and Ohio. GOP wins in Oregon and Illinois.

(More detailed predictions if I can find the time today)

Sunday, September 12, 2010

Football

Football has finally arrived! In the NFL may the Patriots lead the way (and the Jets fall on their giant ego). In fantasy, may the WWTBDs dominate their foes.

Saturday, September 11, 2010

9/11 Nine Years later

I have grown tired of this idea that only Islam could have spawned the terror that occurred on September 11th. There was the attempted eradication of an entire race/culture 60 years prior that showed that Christians could be even more horrific, and there were suicide bombers that attacked Americans soldiers in the Pacific that occurred at the same time.

Let’s not make this about religions, but combating the extremists in any culture or religion.

I could talk about my own events of that day, but they seem less important against the anti-Islam wave that seems to have finally arrived. (And to his credit, rarely given here, George W. Bush was the primary reason that the anti-Islam wave took so long to hit the American shore.)

**This is the first year that I had to explain September 11th to my 10 year old. He actually asked me if he ever saw the Twin Towers (he did).**

Sunday, August 15, 2010

Once Again Jon Stewart Provides The Wisdom So Needed By America

Wednesday, July 07, 2010

Pesky Facts

Violent crime down in Phoenix over the past two years.  See here:  http://phoenix.gov/police/ucrhistpart1v.pdf

Maybe we need more immigrants in Arizona.  Seems like maybe that would reduce the crazy quotient.
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