Tuesday, November 06, 2012

2012 Election Predictions

President

Obama: 303 EV - 51.2% of Popular Vote
Romney: 235 EV - 48.4% of Popular Vote

Obama Swing States:
Colorado
Iowa
Nevada
New Hampshire
Ohio
Pennsylvania (not really a swing state)
Virgina
Wisconsin

Romney Swing States:
Florida
North Carolina

No real big surprises.

Senate

Democrats: 54
Republican: 46
Democrats increase majority by 1

Toss Up Senate Races:
Arizona - Flake (R) - Hold (But will be close)
Connecticut - Murphy (D) - Hold
Florida - Nelson (D) - Hold
Indiana - Donnelly (D) - Pick up
Mass. - Warren (D) - Pick up
Missouri - McCaskill (D) - Hold
Mont. - Tester (D) - Hold
Nevada - Heller (R) - Hold
N. Dakota - Berg (R) - Pick Up
Ohio - Brown (D) - Hold
Penn. - Casey (D) - Hold (But may be a nail biter)
Virgina - Kaine (D) - Hold
Wisconsin - Baldwin (D) - Hold

House

Democrats pick up 5 seats, but I have no idea where.

Monday, May 02, 2011

The Celebrations Tonight

They seem to be dominated by college kids, which is obvious for two reasons. 1-Who else can go out on a Sunday night. 2- What else have they had to celebrate for the past 10 years?

Sunday, May 01, 2011

Bin Laden Dead

Hard to believe it took almost 10 years, but justice has finally arrived to this monster.

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Political Discourse Today

President Obama at University of Michigan Commencement 2010:
But we can’t expect to solve our problems if all we do is tear each other down. You can disagree with a certain policy without demonizing the person who espouses it. You can question somebody’s views and their judgment without questioning their motives or their patriotism… Now, we’ve seen this kind of politics in the past. It’s been practiced by both fringes of the ideological spectrum, by the left and the right, since our nation’s birth. But it’s starting to creep into the center of our discourse. And the problem with it is not the hurt feelings or the bruised egos of the public officials who are criticized. Remember, they signed up for it. … The problem is that this kind of vilification and over-the-top rhetoric closes the door to the possibility of compromise. It undermines democratic deliberation. It prevents learning -- since, after all, why should we listen to a ‘fascist,’ or a ‘socialist,’ or a ‘right-wing nut,’ or a left-wing nut’?

Wednesday, January 05, 2011

Congratulations Speaker Boehner

I find the peaceful transition of power to be among the greatest feats of American democracy, even when my party is the one surrendering power.  Today is a day of celebration that such a feat can be accomplished over and over and over.

I am ever hopeful that the greatest country in the history of the world will continue to move forward as a beacon of hope and inspiration.

I Guess This is One Way to Have Palin Look Like More Moderate

From ABC News:

ABC News has learned that Bachmann, R-Minn., also is seriously weighing whether to seek the Republican nomination for president in 2012.
A source close to the three-term congresswoman said Bachmann will travel to Iowa this month for multiple meetings to seek advice from political forces there and party elders close to the caucus process before coming to a final decision regarding a potential presidential run. Bachmann, a native of Waterloo, Iowa, also is set to deliver a keynote speech at an Iowans for Tax Relief PAC fundraiser Jan. 21 in Des Moines, Iowa.
I had thought she would be running for the Senate seat in 12, but apparently she has her sights set higher.

Friday, November 26, 2010

True Thanks

If you missed this on Thanksgiving Day, you owe it to yourself to watch it.  Its not every NFL pregame show that can bring a tear to your eye. (It is worth putting up with the annoying commercial at the beginning.)

Friday, November 12, 2010

Serenity Now, Serenity Now

Rep. John Shimkus (R-IL) -- who claimed this week he is "uniquely qualified among a group of talented contenders to lead the Energy and Commerce Committee" -- said that climate change should not concern us since God has already promised not to destroy the Earth," the Toronto Star reports.

Said Shimkus: "The Earth will end only when God declares it's time to be over. Man will not destroy this Earth. This Earth will not be destroyed by a Flood. I do believe that God's word is infallible, unchanging, perfect."

(H/T - Political Wire)

Tuesday, November 02, 2010

Election Night Live Blogging

Going to bed, but about 60K votes separating Scott & Sink.  May cause me to run for Palm Beach County elections commissioner some day

OK, getting late.  The key number is 52.  If Dems have 52 Senators, its OK.  Washington will then be really funny to watch.  (and I have officially given up on Palm Beach County voting.)

12:35 - FL Gov's race comes down to Palm Beach County, OY

Please, Please, Please - I want Palin v. Obama in 12.  I'll even give her cash.

12:32 - Losses in PA, IL & Wisc cause the stomach acid in the WH tonight

12:31 - Fox says Reid wins.

12:12 - Looks like Reid might win more comfortably than most Dems tonight.

12:11 - Really, Arizona, Jan Brewer?

12:05 - hey CNN, Obama has done transformational.  Look at what he has done. (and does Mary Matlin have a migraine?)

11:57 - CNN says Dems hold Senate, defeat history.

11:51 - GOP winning for CT gov, but votes still outstanding in Stamford, Bridgeport and Hartford.

11:47 - Does Boehner crying really help?

11:45 - Penn. Sen and OH Gov appear to be going to the GOP.  False illusions from earlier.

11:32 - Alot of the missing votes in Fla appear to be from Palm Beach.  Sink has hope.

11:19 - May seem obvious, but key to the House in 2012 for Dems will be recruiting.  Find good candidates!  Lots of seats that are winnable.

11:10 - CNN just announced no votes in Nevada, but still won't make call.  (Why wait?)

11:04 - Hard to say who has less insightful statement - Spitzer v. Parker

10:53 - Apparently Scott has gotten the call in FL.  I shiver.  He becomes the most unpopular Governor in America before he is even inaugurated.

10:50 - I literally expect nothing to happen over the next 2 years.  Advantage Obama.

10:44 - Shrugging about House.  Had assumed we would lose, numbers don't matter, given the Parlimenatry nature of House (especially for GOP).

10:36 - Wisconsin will be a dark spot.

10:33 - BTW was in Hickenlooper's bar in Denver last week.  Good Beer.

10:30 - Colorado may be another bright spot for Dems. (Few and far between)

10:25 - words that should strike fear in all voter - "problems with the vote in Palm Beach County."
 (calling Theressa LaPorre)

10:14 - Looks like Amendments 5&6 in Florida will pass.  Good news for gerrymandering-foes!

10:08 - Expect gridlock. House will be uncontrollable with lots of tea-partiers.   (White House secretly giddy, if they can keep Senate.)

9:49 - Looks like Mass is back in the Dem camp.  Patrick wins and keep 10 of 10 seats.  Scott brown was a fluke.

9:43 - Also some weird results out of South Carolina. Gov's race is too close to call, Alvin Greene got 30+% and Joe "You Lie" Wilson is losing.  Weird when S.C. may be a Democratic bright spot.

9:40 - Getting pessimistic about Sink's chance in Florida.  But still no results from Hillsborough County and need more from Miami-Dade, Palm Beach and Broward.  Still some hope.

9:32 - Listening to Rubio victory speech.  I may be alone, but I have never impressed with Marco Rubio.  But I do expect to see him on a GOP ticket within the next 12 years. (BTW - line of note in the speech "no matter what title I may achieve.")

9:17 - Florida results are maddeningly slow this year.

9:10 - Nate Silver projects 90% of House takeover, but only 2% Senate takeover.  This defies history that when the House flips, so does the Senate.

9:06 - Races in Wisc, Penn., Illinois, and Colorado Senate races could really change the storyline tomorrow.

9:00 - Exit polls in Wisconsin suggests this may be closer than thought

8:49 - With W.V. being called for Manchin, looks like Dems will hold Senate.  House will be a very different story.  Virgina, which was purple in 08, looks to be red again.

Quick Predictions for Today

House
The GOP takes over, wins 55 seats from Dems, but nets 51 after losing their own seats in DE-At Large, HI-1, FL-25 and IL-10.

Senate

Democrats hold the Senate, 53-47.  Wins in Colorado and West Virginia.  Losses in Nevada and Wisconsin.  Surprise win for Democrats in Alaska, but won't be decided for another month.  California is closer than expected

Governors

A couple key races, Dems win Florida, Colorado and Ohio. GOP wins in Oregon and Illinois.

(More detailed predictions if I can find the time today)

Sunday, September 12, 2010

Football

Football has finally arrived! In the NFL may the Patriots lead the way (and the Jets fall on their giant ego). In fantasy, may the WWTBDs dominate their foes.

Saturday, September 11, 2010

9/11 Nine Years later

I have grown tired of this idea that only Islam could have spawned the terror that occurred on September 11th. There was the attempted eradication of an entire race/culture 60 years prior that showed that Christians could be even more horrific, and there were suicide bombers that attacked Americans soldiers in the Pacific that occurred at the same time.

Let’s not make this about religions, but combating the extremists in any culture or religion.

I could talk about my own events of that day, but they seem less important against the anti-Islam wave that seems to have finally arrived. (And to his credit, rarely given here, George W. Bush was the primary reason that the anti-Islam wave took so long to hit the American shore.)

**This is the first year that I had to explain September 11th to my 10 year old. He actually asked me if he ever saw the Twin Towers (he did).**

Sunday, August 15, 2010

Once Again Jon Stewart Provides The Wisdom So Needed By America

Wednesday, July 07, 2010

Pesky Facts

Violent crime down in Phoenix over the past two years.  See here:  http://phoenix.gov/police/ucrhistpart1v.pdf

Maybe we need more immigrants in Arizona.  Seems like maybe that would reduce the crazy quotient.

Saturday, June 12, 2010

Big East Expansion

Things are getting a little crazy in college sports and although not suffering the fate of the Big 12 in the now, the Big East is certainly at risk.  It is a danger mainly because it is more a basketball conference than a football conference (and has the awkward situation of 6 schools who don't play football in the conference) and lets face it, football steers the boat .  But since size doesn't matter any more (did it ever?), lets solidify the league in football and create a basketball conference that is unrivaled.

To do that the Big East should pick up the remaining Big 12 schools after Texas and their gang leaves on Tuesday.  Lets add Kansas, Kansas St., Baylor, Mizzou and Iowa State.  The Big East is already motley group, lets make is more so.

In basketball we add one of the three most storied schools in the history of hoops, plus solid hoops schools in the remaining 4.  In football, we pick up schools that are fine, and certainly no weaker than the current football lineup.  Plus we add television markets in KC, St. Louis and Texas.  And lets get that Big East TV network off the ground!

Travel will be a bit of a nightmare, but no worse than the Texas swimming team having to go to Pullman, Washington for a match. 

To create more balance, you can have two divisions in football and four for basketball and all other sports.  Geographically it almost works, plus in basketball, you could group the Catholic schools together and put together the old Catholic league.  In hoops, you can play all of the teams in your division twice and then play all the other teams in one other division once.  You wouldn't play some teams for a couple years, but live with it.  Plus you can have a championship football game that you can rotate between New York, Tampa and Kansas City.  Keep the hoops at Madison Square Garden though, because it is the Mecca of basketball, and, besides, who doesn't like coming to New York.  (If you have to keep the Midwesterners happy, maybe rotate Chicago into the mix every third year.)

It also insulates should the Big 10 come knocking at Rutgers or Syracuse (although I don't believe that will happen now -- and anyway, the Big 10 was crazy if they thought Rutgers was the entree into the New York City market.)  It also helps assure Notre Dame that a solid Big East will remain for their non-football sports, so they can resists the pressure to join the Big 10.  Should Rutgers get picked off, we could invite Memphis or Central Florida.

So here is my modest proposal:

Basketball
East
Syracuse
Rutgers
UConn
Pitt
U. South Florida
West Virginia

East 2 (Catholic Division)
St. John's
Providence
Georgetown
Villanova
Seton Hall

Midwest 1
DePaul
Marquette
Notre Dame
Cincinati
Louiville

Midwest 2 (Old Big 12 Division)
Kansas
Kansas State
Iowa State
Missouri
Baylor

Football
East
Syracuse
Rutgers
UConn
USF
Pitt
West Virginia

Midwest
Cincinnati
Louisville
Kansas
Kansas State
Iowa State
Missouri
Baylor
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