Saturday, July 31, 2004

Four Point? Or Ten Point Bounce?

This NBC/Newsweek poll (49 Kerry-42 Bush-3 Nader) is being described as a four point bounce for Kerry/Edwards, but the polling done after Kerry's speech has him up ten points, so you choose the headline.

Even more importantly, Kerry is now ahead or equal with Bush on such important topics as: who will make the right decisions during an international crisis; who do they trust more with handling the situation in Iraq; as well as issues pertaining to health care and Medicare. Even on issues of terrorism, Bush is down to a 5 point lead.

Now, I think that these numbers will continue to bounce around, and after the GOP convention, I predict that this race will be tied again. But the most important thing to remember is that undecideds will probably break 2 to 1 for Kerry, (undecideds normally go about two to one for the challenger) so if Bush is not at about 48% on Election Day, he will probably be seeking new work come January. (Baseball could use a commissioner)