Thursday, September 16, 2004


John Kerry is leading in the recent Harris National Poll. (Story here)

This is around the time that the convention bounce for Bush should be wearing off in the national polls. However his national poll lead (which is now disappearing) is helping in state polls, which are usually lagging indicators at this point in the race. By the end of September, I would expect that Bush will have a national lead on 1 - 2 points, and that the battlegrounds states will probably be back to even.

As I have said before, the debates will be huge, and especially the first one -- if Kerry can come across positively, or even more importantly, likeable, he will be in an excellent position to win. If he falls short, then Bush will have a distinct advantage.

The bottom line in this race is still the same, voters are ready to turn out Bush, but only if they can find Kerry acceptable. So that hasn't happened.