Wednesday, November 17, 2004

A Few Thoughts

I've been staying away from posting post-election, for the most part, trying to recharge my batteries, but two events I would like to make quick comments on.

1) Washington Governor's Race - After 2.6 million votes, the candidates are 19 votes apart. 19 votes! (See the Settle Times story here.) There is certain to be a recount, so it may be a few more weeks before the people of Washington know who their next governor will be. 19 Votes! Amazing.

2) Condi as Sec. State - Words cannot describe how bad a choice I believe this to be. I have always felt that she is an empty suit, but to think of her as our chief diplomat is . . . well, words escape me.

Friday, November 05, 2004

Free Agency

Eric Neal has a pretty good free agent primer at ESPN.

Wednesday, November 03, 2004

2004 ELECTION

It does appear that the American people have spoken, and have narrowly but clearly, decided to return President Bush to office. Clearly, this was not my choice, but the system has worked as it has for over 200 years now. I wish President Bush the best of luck, and hope that he will guide the country with wisdom and strength.

It was not a good night for Democrats, but the party will take its lumps and move on. They will continue to fight for the principles that we believe in and continue their opposition when necessary.

The country remains divided along regional lines. My hope is that this division can be breached, or at least narrowed. Perhaps the next four years will bring the country closer together than the last. That should be the hope and goal of all Americans.

The midnight update

Bush - 209
Kerry - 208

(and me looking to go to bed soon)

This is still too close to call, but Ohio looks like the difference this time.

Regardless, this country is still very divided, and those divisions need to be breached by someone, no matter who wins.

Tuesday, November 02, 2004

THE REAL 11:00 UPDATE

Bush - 197 EVs
Kerry - 188 EVs

Still to be called: OH, WI, FL, NH, NM, CO, IA, MN, WA & OR
Still nochanges from 2000. That favors Bush.

THE 11:00 STATUS

Bush - 196 EVs
Kerry - 133 EVs

Still undecided: NH, FL, OH, PA, WI, IA, MN,NM

So far, no candidate has poached a state from 2000. That favors Bush.


MORE NUMBERS

These numbers seem to be more in line with what we were expecting that the earlier ones:

Kerry Bush
NV 48 50
CO 46 53
NC 49 51
PA 54 45
OH 50 49
FL 50 49
MI 51 47
NM50 48
WI 51 46

Still, not bad numbers for Kerry.

A Quick Election Related Diversion

Click here for a quiz on how well you have been following the race this election season.

I got 37 out of 40, which I guess speaks volumes about me.

Early Exit Numbers

For what it is worth . . .

Kerry Bush
AZ 45 55
CO 48 51
LA 42 57
MI 51 48
WI 52 48
PA 60 40
OH 52 48
FL 51 48
MI 51 47
NM 50 48
MN 58 40
WI 52 43
IA 49 49
NH 57 41

from multiple sources.

EXIT POLLS

For the caveats, see below.

Now for the numbers I've heard, so far:

OH - 49-41 Bush

or
OH - Kerry +4

See, something for everyone.

PS - you can read a good primer on exit polls from a real pollster here.

Exit Polling

I imagine that the early exit polls will begin to leak around 1:30.

Two caveats on exit polling:
1) It is notoriously unreliable as to the final outcome, and never more so than this year, where as much as 20% of the total vote may have already been cast through early voting and absentee voting; and
2) See Rule #1, again.

That said, if I see any numbers, I will share.

For What It Is Worth

From today's Washington Post:

But despite the insistence that all was well, the erosion in the moods of Bush's inner circle over the past two weeks was unmistakable. Several of his close advisers said they were concerned because the president had achieved no last-minute momentum, and Democratic turnout was looking as if it might swamp the Bush-Cheney campaign's projections.

A Republican official who is privy to Bush-Cheney strategy and polling said that as the incumbent, Bush should be further ahead of Kerry in polls. "Some of them have been moving in the right direction, but it isn't enough," the official said. "Karl [Rove] is a big believer in the bandwagon effect, but there has been nothing over the past week for the president to use it to turn it around."

GUT FEELINGS

The polls are tied, the voting has begun and no one really knows what will happen. Yet right now, their gut feeling, most Republicans are unexpectedly nervous, but not fatalistic, and most Democrats are cautiously optimistic. (Normally the feelings are the other way around on Election Day.)

This may not last the first wave of exit polls, but the "gut feeling poll" seems to favor Kerry.

Monday, November 01, 2004

Hoping For A Decisive Winner

I have decided that whoever wins, I hope they do so clearly on Election Night. Between politics and baseball, I feel as if I haven't slept since September, and could I really use the sleep.

ELECTION PREDICTIONS

In a nut shell, here they are:

President: John Kerry – 49.4% - 305 Electoral Votes
George W Bush – 49.1% - 232 Electoral Votes

Senate: 49 Republicans; 50 Democrats; 1 Democratic leaning Independent

House: 209 Democrats; 225 Republicans; 1 Independent

Governors: 29 Republicans; 21 Democrats

For more details click here.
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