States for Bush:

Alabama (6), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Colorado (9), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Iowa (7), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (9), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), New Mexico (5), Nevada (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), Virginia (13), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3)

States for Kerry:

Arkansas (6), California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Florida (27), Illinois (21), Hawaii (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Maine (4), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New York (31), Ohio (20), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), Wisconsin (10)

Comments:

With just a couple days to go, this race is still too close to call and if anything, it seems to be getting closer. Yet something will end up being the factor that tips those 4% of voters who haven’t decided yet. Which that something is – the bin Laden tape, the Marine deaths in Iraq, Dick Cheney’s overnight visit to Hawaii, the weather, the GOTV knocking on their door, Swift Boat ads, gas prices or Sunday’s sermon – I don’t know, but something has to move these voters.

A month ago, Bush looked to be settling into a small, but comfortable lead. That lead disappeared following John Kerry’s performance during the debates. During the debates Kerry looked Presidential, and erased doubts that voters seemed to have about his ability to lead the country. (The Bush team successfully painted Kerry as an unprincipled flip flopper in August and September, but when he came across as resolute during the debates the voters were willing to take a second look at him.)

Right now, the race has settled into a tie with both candidates at about 48%. Bush’s support is probably deeper, but the passion against him is almost as deep. As a general rule, I believe that voters are always more likely to go out and vote for a candidate than against them. This year, however, may be the exception that proves the rule.

There are two things that make me think that the voters will tip Kerry’s way on Election Day: the “incumbent rule” and the right direction/wrong direction polling numbers. Generally, undecided voters break 2 or 3 to 1 to the challenger on Election Day. After all, voters know the incumbent, and if they were comfortable with him, they would have already decided to return him to office. (You can read a more in depth summary of the incumbent rule here.) And Bush seems to have a ceiling of about 48%. Add that to the fact that most surveys have voters saying that the country is going I the wrong direction, it is very likely that voters will decide it is time for a change. (The latest Fox poll has the wrong direction number at 56%.) That said the fact that Kerry has not been able to break out does say something about how voters still have real questions about him.

Like everyone else, I will be closely watching Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and Florida. But early in the evening I will also be keeping an eye on New Hampshire – Kerry should win, but if he wins big, it may be a sign that he will have a good night; Virginia – Bush should have put this state away, but seems to be stuck at around 50%; New Jersey – A strong Bush showing here (even if he doesn’t win) will be a welcome sign to the White House people. Later the numbers out of Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico will be the ones I watch. Bush should win all of these states, but if one falls into Kerry’s column, he will probably win. I will also be very interested to see what turnout is. My feeling is that this will be a big turnout election - maybe 115 million voters. A big turnout probably favors Kerry.

In the end this is still a divided nation. My gut feeling is that people are just unhappy with the way the country is going. They don’t blame Bush personally, but think that it is time for a change in direction and voice. Kerry hasn’t sold them on him, but in the end change will win out. (Of course, I have been known to be wrong on these things.)

**Just for the record – here are my predictions from 2000**

Predicted: Gore 274 EVs; Bush 264

Gore 46%; Bush 48%; Nader 4%; Buchanan 1%

Actual: Gore 266 EVs; Bush 271 EVs

Gore 48.4%; Bush 47.9% Nader 2.74%; Buchanan .4%

Senate

Currently: 51 Republicans; 48 Democrats; 1 Democratic leaning Independent

My Prediction: 49 Republicans; 50 Democrats; 1 Democratic leaning Independent

Open Seats

Colorado

Pete Coors (R) v. Ken Salazar (D)

This may be the closest race in the country. The polls are all over the place, and neither candidate has gained an upper hand. It looks as though Bush will take Colorado, and which should help Coors (any coattails in a race this tight will help). My guess is that voters will go with an Attorney General who has won statewide race and that they are comfortable with over a political newcomer.

Prediction: Ken Salazar (Democratic Pick Up)

Florida

Mel Martinez (R) v. Betty Castor (D)

If Colorado isn’t the closets race, this one is. Neither candidate has been able to make any real inroads into the other’s base. Martinez is Cuban, which should help in South Florida, but his stay in the Bush Cabinet was hardly noteworthy. Castor may have the advantage when voters close the curtain because she has won statewide races before. My best guess is that whichever party wins the Presidential vote, will also win the Senate race, I’m picking Castor, but this race could be called even later than the Presidential race..

Prediction: Betty Castor (Democratic Hold)

Georgia

Johnny Isakson (R) v. Denise Majette (D)

The incumbent party wrote this race off long ago.

Prediction: Johnny Isakson (Republican Pick Up)

Illinois

Alan Keyes (R) v. Barak Obama (D)

See Georgia, above. The real question is whether Keyes can top the 25% mark. (I’d bet against it.)

Prediction: Barak Obama (Democratic Pick Up)

Louisiana

David Vitter (R) v. John Kennedy (D) v. Chris John (D)

Vitter is currently polling in the 40’s his two opponents in the teens, however, this being Louisiana, the only number that counts is 50%. I don’t think that Vitter will get that. And unless he ends up at 49.5%, I think that whichever Democrat comes in second in the first round (and it will be real close) will come in first in the second round.

Prediction: Chris John (Democratic Hold)

North Carolina

Richard Burr (R) v. Erskine Bowles (D)

In September, I thought that this race might actually be over by October, but Burr has run a very good campaign and Bowles has been sitting on a lead and not taking many risks (which fits with his personality). I think the candidate with the momentum wins, and Burr clearly has the momentum.

Prediction: Richard Burr (Republican Pick Up)

Oklahoma

Tom Coburn (R) v. Brad Carson (D)

If elected, Tom Coburn would probably be the most conservative Senator in the Senate and Brad Carson would be the most conservative Senator in the Democratic Caucus. Carson has run as good a campaign as any Democrat can run in Oklahoma, and Coburn has made some bizarre statements and been tagged with possible Medicaid fraud. Despite that Coburn has hung in and the race will be very tight. In the end, I think that voters will decide against a Senator who will probably embarrass them and in favor of one who will sometimes cast votes that aggravate them.

Prediction: Brad Carson (Democratic Pick Up)

South Carolina

Jim DeMint (R) v. Inez Tannenbaum (D)

Tannenbaum has run a better campaign than most people believed could run. And a few missteps by DeMint on tax policy have made this a closer race than it probably should be. However, I expect that one of the most Republicans of states will continue in form, although I think that they will have to sweat this one out more than they had thought.

Prediction: Jim DeMint (Republican Pick Up)

Endangered Incumbents

Alaska

Lisa Murkowski (R)(Inc.) v. Tony Knowles (D)

Knowles is a popular former governor, and Murkowski is the sitting senator, who was appointed by her father, when he was elected Governor two years ago. This has been close, but Knowles has a couple point lead throughout. Alaska is a state where Bush could have some coattails, but Knowles is well known statewide, and Murkowski (the father) is not at all popular, which could drag on his daughter.

Prediction: Tony Knowles (Democratic Pick Up)

Kentucky

Jim Bunning (R)(Inc.) v. Dan Mongiardo (D)

A month ago this was a safe seat, but the increasingly bizarre behavior of Jim Bunning has made this a competitive seat again. (Bunning has dodged rumors that he has Alzheimer’s, but refused to debate his opponent face to face, instead debated standing in a close studio at the Republican headquarters in Washington D.C and used a teleprompter for all or part of the debate. He also has made bizarre accusations and said that his opponent looked like one of Saddam Hussein’s sons.) Bunning is well known and well thought of in Kentucky, but voters may decide that he won’t be around for a full term. That might not be fatal, but it will be if they think that he knows that he won’t b around for a full term. Voters don’t like to be insulted.

Prediction: Dan Mongiardo (Democratic Pick Up)

South Dakota

John Thune (R) v. Tom Daschle (D)(Inc.)

Tom Daschle would be the majority leader of the Senate if the Democrats can pick up two seats, or one seat and have a Kerry victory. But the seat that might ultimately decide his fate is his own. South Dakota is a solid Republican state, but sends two Democrats to the Senate and one Democrat to its only House seat. Daschle should be an easy winner, but this will be nip and tuck. Thune lost 2 years ago to Tim Johnson by 524 votes. This race won’t be nearly as close; Daschle should win easily by 600 votes or so.

Prediction: Tom Daschle (Democratic Hold)

Pennsylvania

Arlen Specter (R)(Inc.) v. Joel Hoeffel (D) v. Jim Clymer (Constitution)

If there might be a surprise next Tuesday, this will be the race. Kerry should win comfortably in PA, helping Hoeffel, and conservatives who already didn’t like Specter are furious over his lack of support and help for Bush in the state. That said, Specter will still hold on despite the high hopes that both Democrats and conservative Republicans had for his defeat at the beginning of the year.

Prediction: Arlen Specter (Republican Hold)

Seats That Should/Could Be Closer

Missouri

Kit Bond (R)(Inc.) v. Nancy Farmer (D)

Farmer was supposed to keep this race close; she failed.

Prediction: Kit Bond (Republican Hold)

Nevada

Richard Ziser (R) v. Harry Reid (D)(Inc.)

Reid won his seat six years ago by less than a thousand votes. This time he wins in a cakewalk.

Prediction: Harry Reid (Democratic Hold)

New Hampshire

Judd Gregg (R)(Inc.) v. Doris Haddock (D)

New Hampshire is trending Democratic. The Governor is in a tight race and Kerry seems to be ahead. But Haddock isn’t a serious candidate and will be lucky to get 40% of the vote.

Prediction: Judd Greg (Republican Hold)

Ohio

George Voinovich (R)(Inc.) v. Eric Fingerhut (D)

This race may be closer than indicated. Voinovich is a symbol of an increasing unpopular Ohio GOP machine. It might be closer, but it won’t be that close.

Prediction: George Voinovich (Republican Hold)

Washington

George Nethercutt (R) v. Patty Murray(D)(Inc.)

Republicans had high hopes for this seat a year ago, then Jennifer Dunn passed on the race and Nethercutt ran a particularly uninspired campaign. The Mom in running shoes gets returned for a third term.

Prediction: Patty Murray (Democratic Hold)

Wisconsin

Tim Michels (R) v. Russ Feingold (D)

Another seat the GOP thought they had a shot at the beginning of the year. Michels is an attractive candidate, and probably has a future in the party. But after two extremely close election, Feingold finally will win one easily.

Prediction: Russ Feingold (Democratic Hold)

Other States Where Senate Elections Will Be Held On November 2^nd

None of these will be close and the incumbent will return again in January for another six years. Frankly none of the races should be with 20%. (Provided just for your information)

Alabama

Richard Shelby(R)(Inc.) v. Wayne Sowell (D)

Arizona

John McCain (R)(Inc.) v. Stuart Starky (R)

Arkansas

Jim Holt(R) v. Blanche Lincoln (D)(Inc.)

California

Bill Jones (R) v. Barbara Boxer (D)(Inc.)

Connecticut

Jack Orchulli (R) v. Chris Dodd (D)(Inc.)

Hawaii

Cam Cavasso (R) v. Daniel Inouye (D)(Inc.)

Idaho

Mike Crapo (R)(Inc.) v. (no opponent)

Iowa

Chuck Grassley (R)(Inc.) v. Art Small (D)

Indiana

Marvin Scott (R) v. Evan Bayh (D)(Inc.)

Kansas

Sam Brownback(R)(Inc.) v. Lee Jones (D)

Maryland

Edward Pipkin (R) v. Barbara Mikulski (D)(Inc.)

New York

Howard Mills (R) v. Chuck Schumer (D)(Inc.)

Oregon

Al King (R) v. Ron Wyden (D)(Inc.)

Utah

Robert Bennet (R)(Inc.) v. Paul Van Dam (D)

Vermont

Jack McMullen (R) v. Pat Leahy (D)(Inc.)

Congressional Races

Current Breakdown – 205 Democrats, 227 Republicans, 2 Vacant, 1 Independent

Predicted Breakdown – 209 Democrats, 225 Republicans, 1 Independent

I won’t predict every race, but I’ve cherry picked the most competitive races here. These are the races that I think will at least be mildly competitive, and where a possible upset could emerge.

(The injustice that Congressional districts have been gerrymandered to the point of insuring a 95% incumbent reelection rate will be a rant for another day.)

Arizona – 1

Paul Babbitt (D) v. Rick Renzi (R)(Inc.)

Democrats had hopes with the Babbitt name, but Renzi should return.

Prediction: Renzi (Republican Hold)

California –3 (open seat)

Gabe Castillo (D) v. Dan Lundgren (R)

Lundgren returns to the House, where his conservative views will be more accepted than his attempts for statewide office in California.

Prediction: Lundgren (Republican Hold)

California – 20 (open seat)

Jim Costa (D) v. Roy Ashburn (R)

Prediction: Costa (Democratic Hold)

Colorado – 3 (open seat)

John Salazar (D) v. Greg Walcher (R)

There will be two Salazar brothers in Congress come January.

Prediction: Salazar (Democratic Pick Up)

Colorado – 4,

Stan Matsunaka (D) v. Marilyn Musgrave (R)(Inc.)

Musgrave won by a handful of votes 2 years ago, this time should be a little easier.

Prediction: Musgrave (Republican Hold)

Colorado – 7

Dave Thomas (D) v. Bob Beauprez (R)(Inc.)

This was the closest race in the country two years ago, won’t be as close this time.

Prediction: Beauprez (Republican Hold)

Connecticut – 2

Jim Sullivan (D) v. Rob Simmons (R)(Inc.)

This is a very close race, but Simmons has gotten some key endorsements, and Bush is very unpopular in this part of the state, which is pretty Democratic anyway.

Prediction: Sullivan (Democratic Pick Up)

Connecticut – 4

Diane Farrell (D) v. Chris Shays (R)(Inc.)

Shays has been sounding like a candidate who thinks he may be defeated. I think he squeaks this one out, but it could easily go either way.

Prediction: Shays (Republican Hold)

Florida – 2

Allen Boyd (D)(Inc.) v. Bev Kilmer (R)

This is a conservative district, but Boyd is pretty popular.

Prediction: Boyd (Democratic Hold)

Florida – 13

Jan Schneider (D) v. Katherine Harris (R)(Inc.)

Democrats will have to wait for another year to beat Harris.

Prediction: Harris (Republican Hold)

Florida – 14(open seat)

Robert Neeld (D) v. Connie Mack IV (R)

The Mack name carries a lot of weight in Florida.

Prediction: Mack (Republican Hold)

Florida – 20(open seat)

Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) v. Margaret Hostetter (R)

Prediction: Schultz (Democratic Hold)

Georgia - 12

John Barrow (D) v. Max Burns (R)(Inc.)

This is a Democratic leaning district; expect it to return to form.

Prediction: Barrow (Democratic Pick Up)

Illinois – 8

Melissa Bean (D) v. Phil Crane (R)(Inc.)

Crane is the most senior GOP member of the House, but has been accused of being increasingly out of touch in his district. This is also a race that may be influenced by having Alan Keyes on the ballot, the Illinois GOP is extremely demoralized going into this election, and Crane will lose.

Prediction: Bean (Democratic Pick Up)

Kentucky – 4 (open seat)

Nick Clooney (D) v. Geoff Davis (R)

The Clooney family won’t just have the opening of Ocean’s 12 to be celebrating this holiday season. George’s father has run a very good campaign.

Prediction: Clooney (Democratic Hold)

Louisiana – 3 & Louisiana – 7

(I have no idea if any one will win these races or if there will have to be a runoff in December, but both of these races will be tight. I just don’t have any idea of who will win them.)

Prediction: None

Nebraska – 2

Nancy Thompson (D) v. Lee Terry (R)(Inc.)

Prediction: Terry (Republican Hold)

New Mexico – 1

Richard Romero (D) v. Heather Wilson (R)(Inc.)

This is a swing district, and if Kerry were to win New Mexico, Romero may be able to squeak a victory. But I don’t see either happening.

Prediction: Wilson (Republican Hold)

New Mexico – 2

Gary King (D) v. Steve Pearce (R)(Inc.)

Prediction: Pearce (Republican Hold)

New York – 27 (open seat)

Brian Higgins (D) v. Nancy Naples (R)

A moderate Republican held this seat, and Naples is also fairly moderate, but the district is pretty Democratic and Higgins should be able to take advantage of that.

Prediction: Higgins (Democratic Pick Up)

New York – 29 (open seat)

Samara Barend (D) v. Randy Kuhl (R)

A fascinating race, where Kuhl has been accused of pointing a shotgun at his ex-wife when he was drunk, and yet he will still probably win the seat because of how the information came to light (from sealed divorce papers).

Prediction: Kuhl (Republican Hold)

North Carolina – 11

Patsy Keever (D) v. Charles Taylor (R)(Inc.)

The GOP is going to sweat this one, but Taylor will survive.

Prediction: Taylor (Republican Hold)

North Carolina – 13

Brad Miller (D)(Inc.) v. Virginia Johnson (R)

Prediction: Miller (Democratic Hold)

Oregon – 1

David Wu (D)(Inc.) v. Goli Ameri (R)

Allegations of a sexual assault from 30 years ago have dogged Wu in this race. Ameri is trying to make hay of it, and in the end will benefit from this revelation.

Prediction: Ameri (Republican Pick Up)

Oregon – 5

Darlene Hooley (D)(Inc.) v. Jim Zupanic (R).

Prediction: Hooley (Democratic Pick Up)

Pennsylvania – 8 (open seat)

Virginia Waters Schrader (D) v. Mike Fitzpatrick (R)

I thought that Schrader would prevail, but some strange behavior on her part during a recent debate pushes me the other way. But it will be close.

Prediction: Fitzpatrick (Republican Hold)

Pennsylvania – 13 (open seat)

Allyson Schwartz (D) v. Melissa Brown (R)

Prediction: Schwartz (Democratic Hold)

Pennsylvania – 15 (open seat)

Joe Driscoll v. Charlie Dent (R)

Prediction: Dent (Republican Hold)

Pennsylvania – 17

Tim Holden (D)(Inc.) v. Scott Paterno (R)

This is a more Republican district, but will return Holden. (Maybe if Penn State were having a better year, Paterno would have a shot.)

Prediction: Holden (Democratic Hold)

South Dakota – At Large

Stephanie Herseth (D)(Inc.) v. Larry Diedrich (R)

A rematch from this June’s special election. Herseth has not given the voters any reasons to change their mind so far, and she even won the NRA endorsement. This will certainly not be as close at the Senate race.

Prediction: Herseth (Democratic Hold)

Texas – 1 (redistricted seat)

Max Sandlin (D)(Inc.) v. Louie Gohmert (R)

The first of the redistricted seat in Texas following Tom DeLay’s reinterpretation of the Constitution. Republicans hope to pick up at least 5 seats from this move.

Prediction: Gohmert (Republican Pick Up)

Texas – 2 (redistricted seat)

Nick Lampson (D)(Inc.) v. Ted Poe (R)

Prediction: Poe (Republican Pick Up)

Texas – 17 (redistricted seat)

Chet Edwards (D)(Inc.) v. Arlene Wohlgemuth (R)

At least one Democrat should survive the redistricting.

Prediction: Edwards (Democratic Hold)

Texas – 19 (redistricted seat)

Charlie Stenholm (D)(Inc.) v. Randy Neugebauer (R)(Inc.)

Stenholm has been around for 25 years; Neugebauer is in his first tem. Won’t make a difference.

Prediction: Neugebauer (Republican Pick Up)

Texas – 25 (redistricted seat)

Lloyd Doggett (D)(Inc.) v. Becky Armendariz Klein (R)

Another Democrat who will survive the non-decennial redistricting.

Prediction: Dogett (Democratic Hold)

Texas – 32 (redistricted seat)

Martin Frost (D)(Inc.) v. Pete Sessions (R)(Inc.)

Frost was the top target of the DeLay redistricting. This has been a silly race with charges of public nudity and sign stealing going back and forth. With Bush’s coattails, the GOP will pick this seat up too.

Prediction: Sessions (Republican Pick Up)

Virginia – 2 (open seat)

David B. Ashe (D) v. Thelma D. Drake (R)

This is a military district, but Ashe is a Iraqi war veteran, and may be a way for some military to protest, quietly.

Prediction: Ashe (Democratic Pick Up)

Washington – 8 (open seat)

Dave Ross (D) v. Dave Reichert (R)

Prediction: Ross (Democratic Pick Up)

Governors

Current Breakdown: 28 Republicans, 22 Democrats

Predicted Breakdown: 29 Republicans, 21 Democrats

There aren’t any particularly interesting Governors races this year, with two exceptions – Indiana and New Hampshire. I predict that Republicans will win both offices.

That’s it – enjoy Election Night. Hopefully it won’t become Election Week, or Month.

2004 Election Predictions

Presidential Race

Electoral Votes