Monday, November 07, 2005

Election Predictions

Although my previous predictions have been less than 100%(just ask President Kerry ) I did go 4 for 4 with my 2003 off-year predictions. So with that caveat, here we go.

New York City Mayor - Mike Bloomberg over Freddie Ferrer. The only question is whether Bloomberg can top 60%. I say he will, capturing 62% of the vote. A pretty pathetic performance for a city that is overwhelmingly Democratic.

New Jersey Governor - Jon Corzine over Doug Forrester. After a sleazy campaign by both sides (this is New Jersey, what do yoze want?)this is a pretty solid blue state, and Junior's popularity will be a drag on Forrester, so expect voters to hold their nose and cast their lot with the devil they know.

Virginia Governor - Jerry Kilgore over Tim Kaine and Russell Potts. This is the race that the DC crowd will be watching with anticipation. Virginia is a red state (Bush won by 9%), but his popularity has slipped even here. The race has been neck and neck for the past few weeks, ever since Kilgore went extremely negative with an ad that mentioned Kaine and Hitler. I anticipate that voter turnout will be key, and in a place like Virginia, the GOP has an edge. Expect a long night, with the third party candidacy of Potts taking about 8% of the vote.

Ohio Redisitricting - No. If this measure passes, it will be the clearest sign of voter disgust over what has been happening both in Columbus and in DC. But powerful forces have joined together to keep the power of redistricting in the hands of the legislature. This will be close, but with no other significant races, expect a low turnout, which makes it very unpredictable.

California Redistricting - No. This has become more a referendum on Arnold than on redistricting. He has taken strong stands on 4 ballot initiatives, and all 4 may end up losing. This will be a victory for Democratic pragmatists, who don't feel like unilaterally laying down their arms in the redistricting wars.

St. Paul Mayor - Chris Coleman over Randy Kelly. In 2004, Kelly, the incumbent Democratic mayor, endorsed Bush for President. Payback will come tomorrow, when Coleman crushes him. He will lose even worse than Ferrer.

Detroit Mayor - Freman Hendrix over Kwame Kilpatrick. Kilpatrick the young (35) incumbent has made several mistakes in the past four years and faces a strong challenge from Hendrix (55), a former Deputy Mayor. In the end neither will be able to do much for this dying city.

San Diego Mayor - Jerry Sanders over Donna Frye. San Diego is pretty much a political mess right now, following the resignation of the Mayor and half the City Council. Sanders is a former police chief, and San Diego is pretty Republican leaning, Frye is seen as a troublemaker. Expect voters to go for stability.

Danbury, CT Mayor - Mark Boughton over Dean Espisito. This will be a bigger blowout than either NYC or St. Paul.