Tuesday, November 07, 2006

6:00 PM (IN, KY)

Seven House races to watch here that will serve as the first indication as to what type of night it will be. If Dems can take 5 or 6, they are going to be on the cusp of a wave. If the GOP can keep 5, they may still have a chance at keeping the House.

IN-2: Chocola (R)* v. Donelly(D) -- Chocola has been behind in most polls for the past couple months. Even in the reddest of states, this is one of what will be a blue wave. Prediction: Donelly - Dem Pick up.

IN-3: Souder (R)* v. Hayhurst (D) -- If the wave takes down Souder, it will be big. Prediction: Souder - GOP hold.

IN-8: Hostettler (R)* v. Elsworth (D) -- Most people believe that this seat is already lost. Prediction: Elsworth - Dem Pick up.

IN-9: Sodrel (R)* v. Hill (D) -- A rematch, Hill used to restrest the district. This time Hill should win. Prediction: Hill - Dem Pick up.

KY-2: Lewis (R)* v. Weaver (D) -- Probably the safest of the seats listed here. If Lewis losses, a blowout in in the works. Prediction: Lewis-GOP hold.

KY-3: Northup (R)* v. Yarmuth (D) -- Northup is on the list of endangered incumbents every two years. She won't be on the list next year. Prediction: Yarmuth - Dem Pick up.

KY-4: Davis (R) v. Lucas (D) -- Lucas used to represent the district until he retired to honor his pledge on term limits. Lucas is a conservative Dem, but Davis is still pretty popular and this is a district that gave Bush over 60% in 2004. If Lucas can win, it is the sign of a big wave. Prediction: Davis - GOP hold

Sub total - Dem +4 in House