Tuesday, November 07, 2006

9 PM (AZ, CO, LA, MN, NE, NM, NY, RI, SD, TX, WI, WY)

AZ-Sen: Kyl (R)* v. Pederson (D) -- The DSCC started pouring money in Arizona after reading some of the early ballot tea leaves. It hard to believe that Kyl would lose, but if there is a 94 type wave there would be some really unexpected losses. Prediction: Kyl - GOP hold.

AZ-1: Renzi (R)* v. Simon (D) -- Some October polling suggested that Renzi might be in some trouble, but he seems to have righted the ship. Prediction: Renzi - GOP hold.

AZ-5: Hayworth (R)* v. Mitchell (D) -- This race seems to be breaking late for Mitchell. Maybe FOX could have a Santorum/Mitchell show? Prediction: Mitchell - Dem Pick up.

AZ-8: Giffords (D) v. Graf (R) -- Graf is a hard line conservative, especially on immigration. He has not been able to rally traditional GOP support and has been consistently behind in the polls. Prediction: Giffords - Dem Pick up.

CO-Gov: Beauprez (R) v. Ritter (D) -- Ritter should not have too much to worry about tonight. Prediction: Ritter - Dem Pick up.

CO-4: Musgrave (R)* v. Paccione (D) -- This one is neck and neck, but I think that this will be a big year for the Democrats in Colorado. Prediction: Paccione - Dem Pick up.

CO-5: Fawcett (D) v. Lamborn (R) -- No way that this race should even be on this list, but Lamborn does not have the support of the retiring Rep., Joel Hefley, and Fawcett is a retired Air Force General. Biggest question here is does the Haggart scandal depress turnout in this Colorado Springs district? Prediction: Lamborn - GOP hold.

MN-Gov: Pawlenty (R)* v. Hatch (D) -- Not long ago Pawlenty was being touted as a national candidiate, maybe VP in 08. Now he is having to stratch hi way up from behind. Hatch has made some minor missteps at the end, and has generally run a vary average campaign. This one will be a nailbiter. Prediction: Pawlenty - GOP hold.

MN-Sen: Kennedy (R) v. Klouchbar (D) -- Once upon a time this looked like it could be a close race. Not any more. Prediction: Klouchbar - Dem hold.

MN-1: Gutknecht (R)* v. Walz (D) -- Another race that popped up in the last few weeks. The wave probably won't get this high. Prediction: Gutknecht - GOP hold.

MN-6: Bachman (R) v. Wetterling (D) -- Bachman seems to have a Katherine Harris quality to her, but Wetterling overreached on the Mark Foley issue, and it is a pretty conservative district. Prediction: Bachman - GOP hold.

NE-3: Smith (R) v. Kleebs (D) -- Bush visited here this week, signifying that this race might be a problem. I can't see it, but who nows. Prediction: Smith - GOP hold.

NM-1: Wilson (R)* v. Madrid (D) -- Democrats have been targeting this seat since 2004. Madrid had surged ahead, but made a major gaffe at a debate and the race has settled back into a tie. This may be one of the few bright spots for the GOP this year. Prediction: Wilson - GOP hold.

NY-3: King (R)* v. Mejias (D) -- Pete King is clearly worried that the tidal wave of national sentiment, combined with the fact that the GOP candidiates for Governor and Senate may both get less that 30% of the vote, will be a major drag of NY GOPers. This one may be closer than most people expacted. Prediction: King - GOP hold.

NY-19: Kelly (R)* v. Hall (D) -- See above factors, throw in a dash of Mark Foley and look for John Hall, the musician - not that John Hall, but from the bad Orleans (you know, Still the One) - to take advantage of those factors. Prediction: Hall - Dem Pick up.

NY-20: Sweeney (R)* v. Gillibrand (D) -- Sweeney looked like he was in trouble, then looked like he righted himself. But this week a report about a 911 call hsi wife made about domestic violence came out. That should be enough. Prediction: Gillibrand - Dem pick up.

NY-24: Arcuri (D) v. Meier (R) -- The NY factors, plus the bad campaign that Meier has run should be enough here. Prediction: Arcuri - Dem Pick up.

NY-25: Maffei (D) v. Walsh (R)* -- Bill Clinton was just here to suport Maffei. Another close race, but given the situtaion in NY, I think the GOP loses the tight ones here. Prediction: Maffei - Dem Pick up.

NY-26: Reynolds (R) v. Davis (D) -- Reynolds looked to be sunk after the Mark Foley scandal, but a freak Buffalo snowstorm and the quick Federal response orchestrated by the White House may be enough to keep him afloat. Plus Davis is a weird character. Prediction: Reynolds - GOP hold.

NY-29: Kuhl (R)* v. Massa (D) -- Another tight one. Slight finger on the scale for Massa. Prediction: Massa - Dem Pick up.

RI-Sen: Chafee (R)* v. Whitehouse (D) -- Chaffee has made a strong come back in the polls, and Whitehouse is not exactly Mr. Charisma. But Bush has approval ratings in the mid-20's in RI, which should be enough even to sink the most independent Republican. Prediction: Whitehouse - Dem Pick up.

TX-22: Lampson (D) v. Sekula-Gibbs (R) -- The problem here is that Sekula-Gibbs is running as a write-in, and even in Tom Delay's old district, it is hard for anyone to win that way. Republicans are hopeful, but it just doesn't seem likely. Prediction: Lampson - Dem Pick up.

WI-8: Kagen (D) v. Gard (R) -- Complete toss up. Prediction: Gard - GOP hold.

WY-AL: Cubin (R)* v. Trauner (D) -- These are troubled days for Moutain West Republicans. Even though still very conservative, they are concerned. And Cubin's threat to strike one of her opponents didn't help. Prediction: Trauner - Dem Pick up.