Tuesday, November 07, 2006

My Election Prediction

Below you can find my election predictions, broken down by poll closing time. (Where states have multiple closing times, I just chose one.)

After looking at all the races my results are this:
House** -- 32 seat Democratic Pick up. Solid Democratic majority.
Senate -- 5 seat Democratic Pick up. Senate ends up tied 50-50, and Dick Cheney gets a lot of air time. (Which is not a bad thing for Dems in 08.)
Governors - 5 Democratic Pick ups.

The most striking thing to me is that I don't see any Democratic incumbents losing. Almost none will even have scares. There is a Blue Wave which starts in the East Coas, picks up speed in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Indiana and runs through the Mountain West. But the Rockies seem to be where it crests, because I don't see too much turmoil on the West Coast.

[**-Update- I had previously predicted a 31 seat pick up, but forgot to include CO-7, which the Dems should pick up as well, so that makes 32.]

Other Predictions:
Steve Taylor: Dems pick up 15-25 in the House and 4 in the Senate.
John McIntyre of Real Clear Politics: Dems pick up 19 seats in the House and 4 in the Senate
Robert George: Dems +31 in House, 50-50 in Senate, Dems pick up 6 Governorships. Wow that's scary -- but he had Dems winning MO and losing MD.