Thursday, November 16, 2006

Majority Leader's Race

Bob Novak pretty much sums up the situation here.

Murtha would be a big mistake. I boggles the mind why Pelosi played this the way that she did -- she loses either way. I think that this will put a lot of Democrats on edge about her leadership. The next test will be the Intelligence Committee, she can't afford to have Hasting as Chairman.

Thursday, November 09, 2006

Did You Know?

That in January (should the results stand in the CT-2 race) there will be only one Republican Representative in all of New England.

Wednesday, November 08, 2006

8,000 votes

Webb's lead in Virginia has grown to over to a little under 8k. Baring some amazing error, Allen is shot. Maybe he can join Santorum and JD Hayworth ontheir new FOX talk show.

1994 redux

This election is amazing similar, except that Republicans had more advanced notice. Reps who should not have come close to losing, lost. (Jim Leach, Jim Ryun, JD Hayworth)

The guys on FOX look stunned.

The day after the 1994 election, I listed to Rush Limbaugh on my drive from NJ to Washington. My own personal punishment. I am looking forward to listening to him after this election. (Not that I expect any humility -- it'll just be closing a circle.)

BTW - Sheppard Smith is an idiot.

Rumsfeld

Bill Kristol just said that Bush needs to dump Rumsfeld to keep credibility. I don't buy it. Bush is too stubborn, more likely you should expect two years of fights and loggerheads.

McCaskill creeping closer

Talent's lead keeps shrinking. Reports are that St. Louis and KC haven't really reported yet, which is great news for Majority Leader (?) Reid.

Recount in Virginia

George Allen just told his people that there will be a recount. But apparently there are 33k votes in Fairfax County that still needs to be counted. Webb should be favored to take a majority of these. But we probably won't know for sure who controls the Senater for a week or so.

YIPEE!

Certainly a Democratic House and looks like a Democratic Senate too.

Tuesday, November 07, 2006

My Election Prediction

Below you can find my election predictions, broken down by poll closing time. (Where states have multiple closing times, I just chose one.)

After looking at all the races my results are this:
House** -- 32 seat Democratic Pick up. Solid Democratic majority.
Senate -- 5 seat Democratic Pick up. Senate ends up tied 50-50, and Dick Cheney gets a lot of air time. (Which is not a bad thing for Dems in 08.)
Governors - 5 Democratic Pick ups.

The most striking thing to me is that I don't see any Democratic incumbents losing. Almost none will even have scares. There is a Blue Wave which starts in the East Coas, picks up speed in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Indiana and runs through the Mountain West. But the Rockies seem to be where it crests, because I don't see too much turmoil on the West Coast.

[**-Update- I had previously predicted a 31 seat pick up, but forgot to include CO-7, which the Dems should pick up as well, so that makes 32.]

Other Predictions:
Steve Taylor: Dems pick up 15-25 in the House and 4 in the Senate.
John McIntyre of Real Clear Politics: Dems pick up 19 seats in the House and 4 in the Senate
Robert George: Dems +31 in House, 50-50 in Senate, Dems pick up 6 Governorships. Wow that's scary -- but he had Dems winning MO and losing MD.

6:00 PM (IN, KY)

Seven House races to watch here that will serve as the first indication as to what type of night it will be. If Dems can take 5 or 6, they are going to be on the cusp of a wave. If the GOP can keep 5, they may still have a chance at keeping the House.

IN-2: Chocola (R)* v. Donelly(D) -- Chocola has been behind in most polls for the past couple months. Even in the reddest of states, this is one of what will be a blue wave. Prediction: Donelly - Dem Pick up.

IN-3: Souder (R)* v. Hayhurst (D) -- If the wave takes down Souder, it will be big. Prediction: Souder - GOP hold.

IN-8: Hostettler (R)* v. Elsworth (D) -- Most people believe that this seat is already lost. Prediction: Elsworth - Dem Pick up.

IN-9: Sodrel (R)* v. Hill (D) -- A rematch, Hill used to restrest the district. This time Hill should win. Prediction: Hill - Dem Pick up.

KY-2: Lewis (R)* v. Weaver (D) -- Probably the safest of the seats listed here. If Lewis losses, a blowout in in the works. Prediction: Lewis-GOP hold.

KY-3: Northup (R)* v. Yarmuth (D) -- Northup is on the list of endangered incumbents every two years. She won't be on the list next year. Prediction: Yarmuth - Dem Pick up.

KY-4: Davis (R) v. Lucas (D) -- Lucas used to represent the district until he retired to honor his pledge on term limits. Lucas is a conservative Dem, but Davis is still pretty popular and this is a district that gave Bush over 60% in 2004. If Lucas can win, it is the sign of a big wave. Prediction: Davis - GOP hold

Sub total - Dem +4 in House

7:00 PM (GA, NH, SC, VT, VA)

Four House seats at play, including the rare Democratic seats.

GA-8: Marshall (D)* v. Collins (R) -- Collins gave up hios House seat to run for Senate in 2002. Mid-decade redistricting also makes this a more GOP friendly district. Prediction: Marshall - Dem hold.

GA-12: Barrows (D)* v. Burns (R) -- The best pick up possibility for the GOP in the country this year. Thing is, I just don't think that any Democratic incumbents will lose this year. Prediction: Barrows - Dem hold.

NH-1: Bradley (R)* v. Shea-Porter (D)-- This seat came into possible play only recently, but Shea-Porter is pretty much an anti-war candidate and NH is still a pretty conservative state. Another seat that could signal a huge Dem night. Prediction: Bradley - GOP hold.

NH-2: Bass (R)* v. Hodes (D) -- This is an example of an incumbent who didn't take the risk of losing seriously enough. Recent polling has Hodes up beyond the margin of error. NH may be conservative, but it isn't as conservative as the national GOP. Prediction: Hodes - Dem Pick up.

VA-Sen: Allen (R)* v. Webb (D) -- No one has run a worse campaign that George Allen this year. I have predicted it before, but when you add everyting up it looks like an Allen loss. And make no mistakes, that is exactly what it would be. Prediction: Webb - Dem Pick up.

VA-2: Drake (R)* v. Kellam (D) -- A heavily military district. I will be watching this as possibly a sign about they really feel about the war. Prediction: Drake - GOP hold.

VA-10: Wolff (R)* v. Feder (D) -- Shouldn't even be a concern, but there are lots of districts like that this year. Prediction: Wolff - GOP hold.

7:30 PM (NC, OH, WV)

Normally this would be a taste until the 8:00 returns, but this year Ohio should be a bloodbath for Republicans. It is possible that the GOP may have lost the house by the time the 8 o'clock returns start trickling in.

NC-8: Hayes (R)* v. Kissel (D) -- There has been some polling that shows Hayes in trouble, but will hold on. Prediction: Hayes - GOP hold

NC-12: Taylor (R)* v. Shuler (D) -- Taylor has had a lot of problems, including a phantom vote regarding a trade agreement that the House leadership wanted, but which is clearly against the interests of the district. Heath Shuler looks to return to Washington, after having failed to make it as the Redskin's quarterback. He has run as an pro-life, pro-gun Democrat. He'll get a chance to get heckled by Skins fans again. Prediction: Shuler - Dem Pick up.

OH-Gov: Strickland (D) v. Blackwell (R) -- There probably isn't a Republican alive that could have won this seat in the current atmosphere. After being a solid blues state for decades, in-state corruption and the increasingly social conservative bent of the national GOP, have made the state hostile to all Republicans. That said, Blackwell's conservative campaign and downright nastiness should make this a blow out. Prediction: Strickland - Dem Pick up.

OH-Sen: DeWine (R)* v. Brown (D) -- The bad atmosphere in Ohio, plus DeWine's low key manner have doomed him. Plus conservatives in the state aren't particularly fon of him. Prediction: Brown - Dem Pick up.

OH-1: Chabot (R)* v. Cranley (D) -- This race has been breaking toward Cranley of late. Prediction: Cranley - Dem Pick up.

OH-2: Schmidt (R)* v. Wulsin (D) -- Schmidt won a crowded special election, but is a weak candidiate. But this is a very strong GOP district and that should carry her over. Prediction: Schmidt - GOP hold.

OH-12: Tiberi (R)* v. Shamansky (D) -- Another district to watch to see if the GOP is going to lose 40 or more seats. Prediction: Tiberi - GOP hold.

OH-15: Pryce (R)* v. Kilroy (D) -- Add the Ohio problem with Pryce's role in the Foley scandal and add a dash of a bad campaigner, you get a Pryce loss. Prediction: Kilroy - Dem Pick up.

OH-18: Padgett (R) v. Space (D) -- This is Bob Ney's old seat. And in case you didn't hear, Ney jst resigned his seat, about two months after he pled guilty to corruption charges. Prediction: Space - Dem Pick up.

8:00 PM (AL,DE,CT, FL, IL, KS, ME, MD, MA, MI, MO, MS, NJ, OK, PA, TN)

CT-Sen: Lieberman (I) v. Lamont (D) v. Schlesinger (R) -- One of the country's most famous and watched races is more or less ending with a wimper. Baring an under the radar groundswell, Lieberman should be able to prevail, basically on the support of Independent and Republican voters. The bigger drama could come if Lieberman is the 51st vote in a Democratic Senate, but that is still down the road. Prediction: Lieberman - Dem hold?

CT-2: Simmons (R)* v. Courtney (D) -- Six months ago this was the most endangered Republican seat in CT. But Simmons was well prepared and has run an excellent campaign. Courtney has gotten most of the newspaper endorsements and will take advantage of a Pesidential approval rating in the 20's. This one will be tight, but having had enough warning, Simmons will prevail. Prediction: Simmons - GOP hold.

CT-4: Shays (R)* v. Farrell (D) -- Another race that the Republicans can point at Bush if they lose. Shays is certainly a moderate in a district that includes towns such as Greenwich and New Cannan. But his support for the war has killed him and his loss of the the New York Times endorsement may have been the nail in his coffin. Prediction: Farrell - Dem Pick up.

CT-5: Johnson (R)* v. Murphy (D) -- At 71, Nancy Johnson has shown that she still has a lot of fight in her. Her campaign has run some of the most negative commercials and attack ads in the country. I think Johnson wasn't as prepared for this challenge as she was last time, and Chris Murphy is an intelligent and attractive candidate, who could have a national presence soon, if he wins. Of the three CT house races, this one will be the closest. Prediction: Murphy - Dem Pick up.

FL-Gov: Crist (R) v. Davis (D) -- I was ready to think that Davis had come close, but would fail by about 5 points, until yesterday's snubbing of President Bush by Crist. That tells me two things, 1) his internal polls have this tight enough so that he is worried that having the last image voters see is Bush and him together would be deadly and 2) instead the last thing Republican voters hear is that he snubbed the President and that Karl Rove is mad at him. This is the type of unforced error that political pros may be looking at for a while. So I predict the upset. Prediction: Davis - Dem Pick up.

FL-Sen: Nelson (D)* v. Harris (R) -- The only questions is will Katherine be able to crack 30%? My guess is no. (And of course, the craziness that she has demonstrated on the campaign trail should in no way lead anyone to question her objectiveness back in 2000! OK, I'm still bitter.) Prediction: Nelson - Dem hold.

FL-13: Buchanan (R) v. Jennings (D) -- Harris' craziness has also hurt the Republican in her current district. This should be a safe GOP seat, but ethical questions about Buchanan combined with sanity questions about Harris have made this a competitive seat. Prediction: Jennings - Dem Pick up.

FL-16: Foley/Negron (R) v. Mahoney (D) -- Mark Foley's name still shows up on the ballot, but his votes go toward Negron, got it? Although Republican express a great deal of hope that they have done enough to convince voters that a vote for Foley is really a vote for Negron, it still will be tough for some voters to vote for Foley anyway. Of course, Mahoney has been a pretty poos candidate, so Foley/Negron has a real chance. In the end, I think the name on the ballot wins over the name not on the ballot. Prediction: Mahoney - Dem Pick up.

FL-22: Shaw(R)* v. Klein (D) - Another one of the races that everyone knew would be close six months ago. Klein looks to have a small edge, which should be enough in the current GOP toxic atmosphere. Prediction: Klein - Dem Pick up.

IL-Gov: Blogojevich (D)* v. Topinka (R) -- A pox on both their houses election. There are actually a couple of third party candidates that register in the polls as well. Will be tight and the winner will be under 50%, but look for the incumbent to win by 3 or 4. Prediction: Blogojevich - Dem. hold.

IL-6: Ducksworth (D) v. Roskam (R) -- The fact that Henry Hyde's seat is competitive is quite telling about the national atmosphere. Ducksworth is a Iraq War vet who lost both her legs, yet Roskam was able to get the VFW endorsement. The polls have been all over the place on this one, but I think the district's natural GOP bent pulls Roskam across. Prediction: Roskam - GOP hold.

IL-8: Bean (D)* v. McSweeney (R) -- This is one of the seats that Republicans have been targeting since 2004. But this is not the year that any Democratic incumbents lose. Prediction: Bean-Dem hold.

KS-2: Ryun(R)* v. Boyda (D) -- This will be a very telling race. It just showed up on the radar about three weeks ago and both parties have been pouring money into it. Ryun should win, but if he doesn't -- look out. Prediction: Ryun - GOP hold.

MD-Gov: Ehrlich (R)* v. O'Malley (D) -- O'Malley has been ahead, but Ehrlich has been quickly closing the gap. Will be another very close Maryland election. Prediction: O'Malley - Dem Pick up.

MD-Sen: Cardin (D) v. Steele (R) -- If there is one Democratic Senate seat that the GOP captures tonight, this is the one. Steele has run an excellent campaign and has made some real inroads into the black vote. In any other year Steele would win, but not this year. Prediction: Cardin - Dem hold.

MI-Gov: Granholm (D)* v. DeVos (R) -- Republicans had high hopes in a state that has a pretty weak economy. But DeVos, despite being ahead this summer, hasn't been able to close the deal. Granholm has pulled ahead and looks to be comfortably ahead. Prediction: Granholm - Dem hold.

MO-Sen: Talent (R)* v. McCaskill (D) -- This is the race that should decide where the Senate goes. The most recent polling has McCaskill slightly ahead, but within the margin of error. Both candidates have run a mostly error-free campaign and both seem to still be highly regarded. Both sides claim that their GOTV is in high swing. Don't expect a winner in this one until sometime on Weds. Prediction: Talent - GOP hold.

NJ-Sen: Menendez (D)* v. Kean (R) -- Any other year I would give the edge to Kean. Real ethical questions do exist about Menendez, but in a battle between a little corruption and a vote for President Bush, NJ voters may choose the corruption. Prediction: Menendez - Dem hold.

PA-Sen: Santorum (R)* v. Casey (D) -- Santorum has strongly been proclaiming his conservative views, so when he looses it can be safely said that the PA electorate has firmly rejected those views. The only question in my mind is whether FOX News already has a show lined up for him come January. Prediction: Casey - Dem Pick up.

PA-4: Hart (R)* v. Altmire (D) -- Another district to watch for the wave. If Hart goes down, Democrats could pick up 40 or so seats. Prediction: Hart - GOP hold.

PA-6: Gerlach (R)* v. Murphy (D) -- This seat is much closer and a rerun of 2004. Latest polls have Murphy slightly ahead. Prediction: Murphy - Dem Pick up.

PA-7: Weldon (R)* v. Sestack (D) -- When the FBI raids your daughter's offices a month before the election, your chances are not very good. Prediction: Sestack - Dem Pick up.

PA-8: Fitzpatrick (R)* v. Murphy (D) -- We could have three Murphys as Freshman Representatives come January, and all three should probably send than you cards to Bush. Prediction: Murphy - Dem Pick up.

PA-10: Sherwood (R)* v. Carney (D) -- When you have to run an ad that says that I cheated on my wife, but I did not choke my mistress, your chances are not very good. Prediction: Carney - Dem Pick up.

TN-Sen: Corker (R) v. Ford (D) -- Harold Ford Jr. has run an excellent campaign, but is hard for a single, young, black man who comes from a famously ethically challenged family to win in Tenn. In fact, if you removed any one of those factors, he would probably be well ahead. Corker has run a safe campaign, but this election is about Harold Ford, either you're for him or against him. Prediction: Corker - GOP hold.

8:30 PM (AR)

AR-Gov: Bebee (D) v. Hutchinson (R) -- This one should be pretty handily in the bag for Bebee. Prediction: Bebee - Dem Pick up.

9 PM (AZ, CO, LA, MN, NE, NM, NY, RI, SD, TX, WI, WY)

AZ-Sen: Kyl (R)* v. Pederson (D) -- The DSCC started pouring money in Arizona after reading some of the early ballot tea leaves. It hard to believe that Kyl would lose, but if there is a 94 type wave there would be some really unexpected losses. Prediction: Kyl - GOP hold.

AZ-1: Renzi (R)* v. Simon (D) -- Some October polling suggested that Renzi might be in some trouble, but he seems to have righted the ship. Prediction: Renzi - GOP hold.

AZ-5: Hayworth (R)* v. Mitchell (D) -- This race seems to be breaking late for Mitchell. Maybe FOX could have a Santorum/Mitchell show? Prediction: Mitchell - Dem Pick up.

AZ-8: Giffords (D) v. Graf (R) -- Graf is a hard line conservative, especially on immigration. He has not been able to rally traditional GOP support and has been consistently behind in the polls. Prediction: Giffords - Dem Pick up.

CO-Gov: Beauprez (R) v. Ritter (D) -- Ritter should not have too much to worry about tonight. Prediction: Ritter - Dem Pick up.

CO-4: Musgrave (R)* v. Paccione (D) -- This one is neck and neck, but I think that this will be a big year for the Democrats in Colorado. Prediction: Paccione - Dem Pick up.

CO-5: Fawcett (D) v. Lamborn (R) -- No way that this race should even be on this list, but Lamborn does not have the support of the retiring Rep., Joel Hefley, and Fawcett is a retired Air Force General. Biggest question here is does the Haggart scandal depress turnout in this Colorado Springs district? Prediction: Lamborn - GOP hold.

MN-Gov: Pawlenty (R)* v. Hatch (D) -- Not long ago Pawlenty was being touted as a national candidiate, maybe VP in 08. Now he is having to stratch hi way up from behind. Hatch has made some minor missteps at the end, and has generally run a vary average campaign. This one will be a nailbiter. Prediction: Pawlenty - GOP hold.

MN-Sen: Kennedy (R) v. Klouchbar (D) -- Once upon a time this looked like it could be a close race. Not any more. Prediction: Klouchbar - Dem hold.

MN-1: Gutknecht (R)* v. Walz (D) -- Another race that popped up in the last few weeks. The wave probably won't get this high. Prediction: Gutknecht - GOP hold.

MN-6: Bachman (R) v. Wetterling (D) -- Bachman seems to have a Katherine Harris quality to her, but Wetterling overreached on the Mark Foley issue, and it is a pretty conservative district. Prediction: Bachman - GOP hold.

NE-3: Smith (R) v. Kleebs (D) -- Bush visited here this week, signifying that this race might be a problem. I can't see it, but who nows. Prediction: Smith - GOP hold.

NM-1: Wilson (R)* v. Madrid (D) -- Democrats have been targeting this seat since 2004. Madrid had surged ahead, but made a major gaffe at a debate and the race has settled back into a tie. This may be one of the few bright spots for the GOP this year. Prediction: Wilson - GOP hold.

NY-3: King (R)* v. Mejias (D) -- Pete King is clearly worried that the tidal wave of national sentiment, combined with the fact that the GOP candidiates for Governor and Senate may both get less that 30% of the vote, will be a major drag of NY GOPers. This one may be closer than most people expacted. Prediction: King - GOP hold.

NY-19: Kelly (R)* v. Hall (D) -- See above factors, throw in a dash of Mark Foley and look for John Hall, the musician - not that John Hall, but from the bad Orleans (you know, Still the One) - to take advantage of those factors. Prediction: Hall - Dem Pick up.

NY-20: Sweeney (R)* v. Gillibrand (D) -- Sweeney looked like he was in trouble, then looked like he righted himself. But this week a report about a 911 call hsi wife made about domestic violence came out. That should be enough. Prediction: Gillibrand - Dem pick up.

NY-24: Arcuri (D) v. Meier (R) -- The NY factors, plus the bad campaign that Meier has run should be enough here. Prediction: Arcuri - Dem Pick up.

NY-25: Maffei (D) v. Walsh (R)* -- Bill Clinton was just here to suport Maffei. Another close race, but given the situtaion in NY, I think the GOP loses the tight ones here. Prediction: Maffei - Dem Pick up.

NY-26: Reynolds (R) v. Davis (D) -- Reynolds looked to be sunk after the Mark Foley scandal, but a freak Buffalo snowstorm and the quick Federal response orchestrated by the White House may be enough to keep him afloat. Plus Davis is a weird character. Prediction: Reynolds - GOP hold.

NY-29: Kuhl (R)* v. Massa (D) -- Another tight one. Slight finger on the scale for Massa. Prediction: Massa - Dem Pick up.

RI-Sen: Chafee (R)* v. Whitehouse (D) -- Chaffee has made a strong come back in the polls, and Whitehouse is not exactly Mr. Charisma. But Bush has approval ratings in the mid-20's in RI, which should be enough even to sink the most independent Republican. Prediction: Whitehouse - Dem Pick up.

TX-22: Lampson (D) v. Sekula-Gibbs (R) -- The problem here is that Sekula-Gibbs is running as a write-in, and even in Tom Delay's old district, it is hard for anyone to win that way. Republicans are hopeful, but it just doesn't seem likely. Prediction: Lampson - Dem Pick up.

WI-8: Kagen (D) v. Gard (R) -- Complete toss up. Prediction: Gard - GOP hold.

WY-AL: Cubin (R)* v. Trauner (D) -- These are troubled days for Moutain West Republicans. Even though still very conservative, they are concerned. And Cubin's threat to strike one of her opponents didn't help. Prediction: Trauner - Dem Pick up.

10:00 PM (ID, IA, MT, NV, ND, OR, UT)

ID-Gov: Otter (R) v. Brady (D) -- Another seat that the GOP woould never have to worry about in an normal year, but this year voter anger in the Mountain West is at an all-time high, so seats like this end up in play. Playing the hunch on this one. Prediction: Otter - GOP hold

ID-1: Sali (R) v. Grant (D) -- everything above holds true for the Congressional seat as well, except that the GOP may have nominated someone that is even too conservative for Idaho. Prediction: Grant -- Dem Pick up.

IA-Gov: Nussel(R) v. Culver(D) -- Democrats will have a good night in Iowa. Prediction: Culver - Dem hold.

IA-1: Whalen (R) v. Braley (D) -- See above. Prediction: Braley -- Dem pick up.

MT-Sen: Burns (R)* v. Tester (D) -- Burns has been making up ground and is going to make this race a lot closer than we would have thought a fortnight ago. But in a state where Jack Abramoff has 85% name recognition, I can't see Burns winning. Prediction: Tester - Dem Pick up.

NV-Gov: Gibbons (R) v. Titus (D) -- Gibbons has had a scandal a week in October. Maids, assualt, corruption. This is New Jersey West. Even though Titus is too liberal for the state, I think the scandals will drag Gibbons into a nailbiter. Prediction: Gibbons -- Rep. hold.

NV-2: Heller (R)* v. Derby (D) -- Heller is overing under 50%, always a worrying sign. This will be closer than thought. Prediction: Heller - GOP hold.

NV-3: Porter (R) v. Haffen (D) -- Porter seem to be hovering at 50% Probably enough to limp across. Prediction: Porter - GOP hold.

OR-Gov: Kulangoski (D)* v. Saxton (R) -- This summer this race looked like an upset in the making. Doesn't look like that will happen. Prediction: Kulandoski - Dem hold.

12:00 (AK)

Last, but not least:

AK-Gov: Palin (R) v. Knowles (D) -- Alaskan GOP voters rejected Gov. Murkowski's reelection bid, in favor of Palin. That was the high point in her campaign. Yet she still leads former Governor Tony Knowles in every poll, but barely. If the race lasted another week, I think Knowles would pull ahead, but the voting is today. Prediction: Palin - GOP hold.

11:00 PM (CA, HI, WA)

CA-Gov: Schwarzenager (R)* v. Angelides (D) -- Arnnuld, Arnnuld, Arnnuld. Lools like the Governator will return. Of course, he had to run as a virtual Democrat to do so. Prediction: Schwarzenager - GOP hold.

CA-4: Doolittle (R)* v. Brown (D) -- Amazingly there are only three races that are even close in the country's biggest state and all three are because of corruption issues. Here Doolittle will survive, unless the wave that starts in the East doesn't crest in the Rockies. Prediction: Doolittle - GOP hold.

CA-11: Pombo (R)* v. McNerney (D) -- Pombo keeps getting under 50%. An incumbent under 50% in this atmosphere could be in real trouble, even if the Blue Wave doesn't make it all the way out West. Prediction: McNerney -- Dem Pick up.

CA-50: Bilbray (R)* v. Busby (D) -- this is a rematch of this summer's special election to fill Duke Cunningham's seat. The results will be the same. Prediction: Bilbray - GOP hold.

WA-8: Burner (D) v. Reichert (R)* -- This has been one of the closer races all year. This is the "Microsoft District" and Burner is a former Microsoft employee. My guess is that we won't know the winner until well into Wednesday. Hopefully we will have a clear winner in the House by then. Prediction: Reichert - GOP hold.

Monday, November 06, 2006

Tightening Generic Ballot Numbers

In case you haven't heard, the generic ballot numbers tightened over the weekend, yet still favor the Democrats. This is causing consternation among the left.

Yet look at these numbers from 1994 via Hotline on Call .

ABC: --- 47-46 in favor of the Dems (a 6-point swing in the last week toward the Dems)
Gallup: --- 51-44 for the GOP (a 4 point swing in the last week toward the Dems)
NBC: --- 46-35 for the GOP (a 2 point swing in the two weeks toward the Dems)
Times Mirror: --- 48-43 for the GOP (a 7 point swing in the last month toward the Dems)

Those numbers look strangely similar to this years.

A Sign of the Times

Congresswoman Nancy Johnson, on her official website, touts that she "Welcomes Bill Clinton to Conn." with a picture of her and Bubba and all.

Not pictured, however, is President George W. Bush. The only mentions of Bush on the front page of her website are three "stories" in which she is critical of his actions.

(BTW - Johnson was a stalwart support of Bill Clinton while in office . . . what, she voted for impeachment? Never mind.)

Saturday, November 04, 2006

Clavinova Concert

My Plea to the DSCC, DCCC and DNC

Please use this VP Cheney quote as the centerpiece of ad on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

"We've got the basic strategy right,"

Apparently Cheney told that to George Stephanopoulos in an interview to be broadcast Sunday on This Week.

The ad can be simple, it doesn't even need to be harsh. It can be something like this:

"President Bush, VP Cheney, and Candidate (R) think that the we need to stay the course in Iraq."

Cheney quote, followed by a Bush quote on staying the course, and maybe a Candidate R statement.

"Candidate D thinks that we can do better. On Tuesday you get to decide which path we will take."

Please, please run that ad. Make that the last thing that voters hear before they go into their election place.

Wednesday, November 01, 2006

So much fun stuff out there

There's John Kerry trying to blow it for the Democrats in 2006 like he did in 2004. (By the way, regardless of its soullessness, watching the Bush/Rove machine pounce on a misstep is impressive on a political level. And I think we can also throw the last shovel of dirt on the Kerry 08 "movement.")

There's George Allen's people roughing up a constituent in full view of video cameras. (Another reason why he's going to lose.)

There's the whole saga that is the Nevada Governor's race.

There's Rep. John Sweeney (R-NY) having to defend himself after it was revealed that his wife called 911 and said he was "knocking her around the house."

And, of course don't forget, if you vote for the Democrats, the terrorists win.
<