Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Been Busy

As always, life has intervened and kept me away, but for my two loyal readers a few thoughts on tonight:

- It looks like Hillary has about a 5 point cushion in the Ohio numbers. If the final numbers are less and if she loses or ekes out a 1 point win, she will be done. If she does much better than expected and wins by 10 or more, she'll be in until Pennsylvania, regardless of what happens in Texas.

- Texas looks real close, but because of how delegates are allocated, it is almost certain that Obama will get more delegates. But that doesn't matter -- watch only the popular vote tonight, if Obama can put together a 5 point victory the pressure will grow for Hillary to get out. If Hillary can keep it to 2-3 points, she'll be fine.

- My guess is that tonight's results will be pretty muddled. Obama wins Texas by 3 and Hillary wins Ohio by 6. (Also, Obama will win Vermont, but Hillary will take Rhode Island.) That is just not enough to convince the Clinton camp that it is over, especially after Obama has had a tough week with the NAFTA-Canada thing. But it might be enough for a trickle of superdelegates to start announcing their support for Obama. Either way, nothing will get resolved tonight.