Saturday, November 08, 2008

An In Depth Analysis of the Election

I was going to do a deep analysis, but I found the following which pretty much sums it up better than I could.

So basically my analysis is that, whatever happened, we are, as a nation, doomed. We are also bitterly divided, because whoever wins, roughly half of us will despise the other half, and vice versa.

You know what I miss? I miss 1960. Not the part about my face turning overnight into the world's most productive zit farm. What I miss is the way the grown-ups acted about the Kennedy-Nixon race. Like the McCain-Obama race, that was a big historic deal that aroused strong feelings in the voters. This included my parents and their friends, who were fairly evenly divided, and very passionate. They'd have these major honking arguments at their cocktail parties. But unlike today, when people wear out their upper lips sneering at those who disagree with them, the 1960s grown-ups of my memory, whoever they voted for, continued to respect each other and remain good friends.

What was their secret? Gin. On any given Saturday night they consumed enough martinis to fuel an assault helicopter. But also they were capable of understanding a concept that we seem to have lost, which is that people who disagree with you politically are not necessarily evil or stupid. My parents and their friends took it for granted that most people were fundamentally decent and wanted the best for the country. So they argued by sincerely (if loudly) trying to persuade each other. They did not argue by calling each other names, which is pointless and childish, and which constitutes I would estimate 97 percent of what passes for political debate today.

What I'm saying is: we, as a nation, need to drink more martinis.

No, you know what I'm saying. I'm saying, now that this election is over, whatever the hell happened, can we please grow up and stop being so nasty to each other? Please?

OK, I didn't think so.

Please pass the pitcher.

That is something I think we can all believe in. Thanks Dave Barry.

Monday, November 03, 2008

PREDICTIONS FOR TOMORROW

Presidential Race Prediction

Electoral College
Obama – 321 McCain – 217

Popular Vote
Obama – 52% McCain – 47%


The Obama campaign’s organizational skills will drag him across the finish line in the key state of Virginia and Florida. I just can’t see McCain winning Pennsylvania, but if it is close, it will be a very long night. The OH GOP’s excellent organization should be enough to keep that state in McCain’s column. North Carolina may end up being the closest state, but in the end I think it will revert to its Rep roots. My “surprise” state is Montana. It has been sparsely polled, and the presence of Ron Paul on the ballot could drag McCain’s numbers low enough for Obama to sneak past. (Don’t forget that Clinton was able to win Montana once too.)

Let me say this though, if North Carolina and Ohio end up in Obama’s column, I think we’ll see a landslide election, with Obama getting over 400 votes (including IN, LA, ND, WV and MO).


SENATE PREDICTIONS

There is no doubt that the Democrats will have a good night on November 4th. The feelings that atmosphere is so toxic for Republicans combined with facts that have more seats (23-12) to defend will make for a long night for GOP Senate watchers. The pressing question is whether the Democrats will get to 60 seats, which (at least in theory) would keep Republicans from being able to filibuster. My prediction is that the Democrats will end up with 58 seats (at least before any Senators are asked to join the cabinet, or Joe Lieberman formally joins the GOP caucus).

EASY WINS FOR THE INCUMBENT

• ID Open (Craig, R)
• NE Open (Hagel, R)
• Alexander (R-TN)
• Barrasso (R-WY)
• Cochran (R-MS)
• Cornyn (R-TX)
• Enzi (R-WY)
• Graham (R-SC)
• Inhofe (R-OK)
• Roberts (R-KS)
• Sessions (R-AL)
• Baucus (D-MT)
• Biden (D-DE)
• Durbin (D-IL)
• Harkin (D-IA)
• Johnson (D-SD)
• Kerry (D-MA)
• Lautenberg (D-NJ)
• Levin (D-MI)
• Pryor (D-AR)
• Reed (D-RI)
• Rockefeller (D-WV)
EASY DEMOCRATIC PICK UPS
• CO Open (Allard, R)
• NM Open (Domenici, R)
• VA Open (Warner, R)
Easy Republican Pick Ups
• None

SENATE RACES TO WATCH

Alaska – Ted Stevens can’t survive a conviction, although it will be close. Dem Pick Up.

Georgia – Saxsby Chambliss will win, the big question is if he gets 50% + 1 in order to avoid a Dec. runoff. He will. GOP Hold.

Kentucky - Mitch McConnell will be a casualty if there is a serious wave. The wave nips at him, but he survives to lead the loyal opposition. GOP Hold.

Louisiana – What was once the Democrats most vulnerable seat will be a pretty easy hold. The most interesting question will be what portion of the Katrina refugees will return to vote. Dem Hold.

Maine – Susan Collins was a target, but she will hold on pretty handily. GOP Hold.

Minnesota – By far the most entertaining of the night’s races. Neither Al Franken or Norm Coleman can seem to get ahead, and the presence of a serious third party candidate (combined with Minnesota’s normal quirkiness) make it almost impossible to predict, but I will anyway – Obama pulls Franken across. Dem Pick Up.

Mississippi – Another wave indicator, but recently appointed Senator Roger Wicker will just hold off former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove. GOP Hold.

New Hampshire – Jeanne Shaheen will win this rematch of the 2002 race against John Sunnu. Dem Pick Up.

North Carolina – Liddy Dole hasn’t stayed in touch with her North Carolina roots (as though she had in 2002 either). Kay Hagen wins by 5%. Dem Pick Up.

Oregon – I think this will be the closest race and we won’t know for two or three days. Gordon Smith has been running as an Obama supporter, but my guess is that Oregon voters will chose the real one. Dem Pick Up.
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