Monday, November 03, 2008

PREDICTIONS FOR TOMORROW

Presidential Race Prediction

Electoral College
Obama – 321 McCain – 217

Popular Vote
Obama – 52% McCain – 47%


The Obama campaign’s organizational skills will drag him across the finish line in the key state of Virginia and Florida. I just can’t see McCain winning Pennsylvania, but if it is close, it will be a very long night. The OH GOP’s excellent organization should be enough to keep that state in McCain’s column. North Carolina may end up being the closest state, but in the end I think it will revert to its Rep roots. My “surprise” state is Montana. It has been sparsely polled, and the presence of Ron Paul on the ballot could drag McCain’s numbers low enough for Obama to sneak past. (Don’t forget that Clinton was able to win Montana once too.)

Let me say this though, if North Carolina and Ohio end up in Obama’s column, I think we’ll see a landslide election, with Obama getting over 400 votes (including IN, LA, ND, WV and MO).


SENATE PREDICTIONS

There is no doubt that the Democrats will have a good night on November 4th. The feelings that atmosphere is so toxic for Republicans combined with facts that have more seats (23-12) to defend will make for a long night for GOP Senate watchers. The pressing question is whether the Democrats will get to 60 seats, which (at least in theory) would keep Republicans from being able to filibuster. My prediction is that the Democrats will end up with 58 seats (at least before any Senators are asked to join the cabinet, or Joe Lieberman formally joins the GOP caucus).

EASY WINS FOR THE INCUMBENT

• ID Open (Craig, R)
• NE Open (Hagel, R)
• Alexander (R-TN)
• Barrasso (R-WY)
• Cochran (R-MS)
• Cornyn (R-TX)
• Enzi (R-WY)
• Graham (R-SC)
• Inhofe (R-OK)
• Roberts (R-KS)
• Sessions (R-AL)
• Baucus (D-MT)
• Biden (D-DE)
• Durbin (D-IL)
• Harkin (D-IA)
• Johnson (D-SD)
• Kerry (D-MA)
• Lautenberg (D-NJ)
• Levin (D-MI)
• Pryor (D-AR)
• Reed (D-RI)
• Rockefeller (D-WV)
EASY DEMOCRATIC PICK UPS
• CO Open (Allard, R)
• NM Open (Domenici, R)
• VA Open (Warner, R)
Easy Republican Pick Ups
• None

SENATE RACES TO WATCH

Alaska – Ted Stevens can’t survive a conviction, although it will be close. Dem Pick Up.

Georgia – Saxsby Chambliss will win, the big question is if he gets 50% + 1 in order to avoid a Dec. runoff. He will. GOP Hold.

Kentucky - Mitch McConnell will be a casualty if there is a serious wave. The wave nips at him, but he survives to lead the loyal opposition. GOP Hold.

Louisiana – What was once the Democrats most vulnerable seat will be a pretty easy hold. The most interesting question will be what portion of the Katrina refugees will return to vote. Dem Hold.

Maine – Susan Collins was a target, but she will hold on pretty handily. GOP Hold.

Minnesota – By far the most entertaining of the night’s races. Neither Al Franken or Norm Coleman can seem to get ahead, and the presence of a serious third party candidate (combined with Minnesota’s normal quirkiness) make it almost impossible to predict, but I will anyway – Obama pulls Franken across. Dem Pick Up.

Mississippi – Another wave indicator, but recently appointed Senator Roger Wicker will just hold off former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove. GOP Hold.

New Hampshire – Jeanne Shaheen will win this rematch of the 2002 race against John Sunnu. Dem Pick Up.

North Carolina – Liddy Dole hasn’t stayed in touch with her North Carolina roots (as though she had in 2002 either). Kay Hagen wins by 5%. Dem Pick Up.

Oregon – I think this will be the closest race and we won’t know for two or three days. Gordon Smith has been running as an Obama supporter, but my guess is that Oregon voters will chose the real one. Dem Pick Up.
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